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Steven Senne/Associated Press
The offensive production from the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots is difficult to sift through from a daily fantasy football perspective.
Both teams like to spread around the ball, and they have rushing attacks that can feature multiple running backs. For example, the Patriots have four players with more than 300 receiving yards and six players with 20 or more receptions.
Hunter Henry has been the most reliable scorer for the Patriots, but he typically does not earn a ton of targets with Kendrick Bourne, Jakobi Meyers and others on the field.
As for Atlanta, it has called upon Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson to shoulder heavy production loads in recent weeks. Patterson would be a lock for one of the positions in DFS lineups Thursday night, but an ankle injury means he is a game-time decision, per ESPN’s Michael Rothstein.
Patterson’s status throws more questions into the lineup-building process since he has been a high-volume player in the Atlanta offense.
The Falcons’ top injury concern adds to the production uncertainty at running back. Damien Harris was cleared to play for New England, which will take away touches from Rhamondre Stevenson, who scored twice in Week 10.
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Stew Milne/Associated Press
The one certainty we have from either offense is that Hunter Henry will be a red-zone target for Mac Jones.
The Patriots tight end is coming off a four-catch, two-touchdown performance against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Henry has found the end zone in six of the past seven games. The only contest in which he did not score during that run was against former team the Los Angeles Chargers.
Henry’s target rate and yardage production are not ideal for a DFS lineup, but he more than makes up for that with his scoring consistency. He has had more five or more receptions twice, and he last went over the 40-yard threshold in Week 5.
Atlanta ranks in the middle of the league in concessions to opposing tight ends, but it also has not faced many dominant players at the position lately. The Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints and Dallas Cowboys do not have commanding tight ends patrolling the opposing secondary.
However, it is worth noting that the Falcons gave up 85 receiving yards and a touchdown to Mike Gesicki of the Miami Dolphins in Week 7. Miami’s tight end trio of Gesicki, Durham Smythe and Adam Shaheen combined for 14 receptions and 145 receiving yards in that matchup.
If Jones picks out similar holes in the Atlanta defense Thursday, Henry could be in for a more productive day than he has typically had this season.
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Matt Patterson/Associated Press
Atlanta’s running back situation is one of the worst in the NFL.
Mike Davis was brought in during the offseason to be the feature back, and he has played a supporting role in the offense behind Patterson.
In Week 10, Wayne Gallman received a handful of carries as the Falcons attempted to do something different against the Dallas Cowboys. Gallman could earn more snaps Thursday, especially if Patterson is not at 100 percent, but even then the Atlanta running backs are not worth a DFS roster spot.
New England has given up the fewest touchdowns to opposing running backs. The Patriots have conceded two rushing scores and one receiving touchdown to running backs this season.
The Patriots have allowed the second-most receiving yards to running backs, but that statistic might not mean much in regard to Thursday’s game if Patterson is not healthy. Patterson is one of Atlanta’s top pass-catchers, and his absence would throw a wrinkle into the offensive game plan.
Even if Patterson is able to go, the Falcons could have a hard time punching in touchdowns from the position, which would lead to others jumping the running backs in DFS point production.
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Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press
With so many question marks surrounding the running back production, you need to play it safe by adding the top pass-catchers on both rosters.
Rookie Atlanta tight end Kyle Pitts has taken over the role of Matt Ryan’s top target after Calvin Ridley stepped away from the team. Pitts leads the Falcons with 64 targets, 40 receptions and 606 receiving yards. None of the active wide receivers on the Atlanta roster have more than 200 receiving yards.
Jakobi Meyers is second to Kendrick Bourne in receiving yards on the New England roster, but he has 33 more targets and 17 additional receptions. Meyers finally broke his professional scoring drought in Week 10, and he should be Jones’ second-best red-zone option behind Henry.
If Meyers finds the end zone on a regular basis, he could be one of the top fantasy wide receivers in the second half of the regular season because of his high target rate.
Bourne, Nelson Agholor and Russell Gage are among the second-tier receiver options you can use beneath Pitts and Meyers, but it is clear that both top pass-catchers will play major roles Thursday and should be included in most DFS rosters.
Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.
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