‘Peek Performance’ odds: Every Apple event rumor ranked by likelihood

Apple’s first event of 2022 has certainly piqued our curiosity. While we usually have a pretty good idea about what’s going to be released at this point—the only real surprise at the “Spring Loaded” event was Apple Card Family—Apple has done a good job keeping its “Peek Performance” event under wraps. So if you’re playing along, here’s what we’re most likely to see on Tuesday.

iPhone SE: 100%

The one product we’re absolutely certain to see at “Peek Performance” is a new iPhone SE. It’s been about two years since the second-generation model was released, and rumors have been flying for several weeks. It won’t be all that exciting—an A15 chip, a slightly better camera with night mode, and 5G connectivity are the main upgrades—but look for it to get a prime spot in the keynote.

iPad Air: 95%

Another near-certainty, the iPad Air will reportedly get the iPad mini treatment, with an A15 processor, ultra-wide front camera with Center Stage, and 5G cellular connectivity. Those are nice, if not overdue upgrades, but like the iPhone SE, not all that exciting. 

M1 Pro/M1 Max Mac mini: 75%

The high-end Mac mini is one of a handful of Macs with Intel chips that Apple still makes, so it’s definitely getting a refresh this year. The latest rumors give an M1 Pro/M1 Max model a good chance of making an appearance, so we’ll give it 1:3 odds. A high-end Mac seems like the wrong fit for a spring event—the only “Pro” product released at a spring event was the 9.7-inch iPad pro in March 2016—but with numerous Macs due to launch this year, Apple might need to break that tradition.

M2 processor: 50%

Here’s where things get interesting. If Apple uses its “Peek Performance” event to unveil the M2 processor, it opens up way more possibilities for announcements. Apple is more than halfway through its two-year silicon transition, and with several higher-end Macs remaining, an M2 introduction would muddy the field somewhat, with a mix of M1 and M2 processors as well as a few Intel stragglers. But with the oldest M1 Macs nearly 16 months old, it’s about time for a refresh. 

MacBook Air: 45%

If the M2 is unveiled, the MacBook Air is a strong contender to be the first Mac to showcase it. Apple is rumored to be giving the MacBook Air a complete makeover with a new 24-inch iMac-inspired design, slim bezels, and a faster processor.

Standalone display: 40%

Apple is reportedly working on a standalone 27-inch display that’s more affordable than the $5,999 Pro Display XDR. Scattered rumors peg the monitor for release sometime in 2022, and it would make a great addition to a new Mac mini. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman said the monitor is complete and he “wouldn’t rule out” a launch at Tuesday’s event.

13-inch MacBook Pro: 30%

Apple is rumored to be refreshing a refreshed 13-inch MacBook Pro with a faster M2 chip, but we have our reservations. Besides, if it’s just a spec bump, it doesn’t actually need to be released at an event.

iPad Pro: 30%

The iPad Pro will likely be getting an M2 upgrade at some point in 2022, but it’s been less than a year since the current model was released. The iPad Pro has typically been on an 18-month cadence, though the last two models were released a year apart. It seems a little early for a 2021 model already, especially with the supply chain issues still affecting stock.

iMac Pro: 20%

It’s been almost a year since Apple launched the 24-inch iMac at last year’s spring event, but it looks like we’re going to be waiting a little bit longer for the 27-inch version. All signs point to WWDC or later for the high-end iMac, which should have an M1 Pro/M1 Max processor and a similar design to the 24-inch model.

Mac Pro: 15%

The Mac Pro is something of a wild card. While the high-end model is highly unlikely to make its debut outside of WWDC, 9to5Mac reported last week that a cheaper and smaller model is also in the works. It’s possible that the lower-cost model makes an appearance at this event as a new G4 Cube-type product.