Preakness 2022: Projected Prize Money Earnings, Order of Finish and More

The Washington Post/Getty Images

Epicenter remains the heavy favorite heading into race day, which isn’t surprising after his close loss at the Derby. The Steve Asmussen-trained Colt was overtaken in the final seconds by the 80-1 longshot, but he won’t face him in this race.

Stamina and conditioning could come into play on Saturday evening. Epicenter has run seven races in a span of eight months and was pushed to the limit at Churchill Downs a couple of weeks ago. High temperatures could potentially add to the fatigue factor.

According to WBFF Baltimore, temperatures in the area will reach the low-to-mid 90s.

Epicenter will be challenged by other horses, too, including the D. Wayne Lukas-trained Secret Oath. The filly won convincingly at Churchill Downs and has the speed and the stamina to become just the eighth filly to win the Preakness in the race’s history.

“When she gets to a horse, if you ask her, she gets past them quick,” Lukas said of Secret Oath, per Shawn Stepner of WMAR Baltimore. “She accelerates. That makes her very, very tough to beat.”

Simplification lagged late at the Derby but has a favorable position from the No. 1 post and can make a run if jockey John Velazquez can keep rail positioning through the early goings. As Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post recently pointed out, Simplification ran faster—in feet-per-second after accounting for distance—than Epicenter at the Derby.

Early Voting is another strong contender and may be one of the freshest horses in the race after skipping the Derby. He has won two of three races and hasn’t run since finishing second at the Wood Memorial in early April.

While it certainly feels like this will be a race between the favorites, thoroughbred racing is unpredictable—and Rich Strike’s Derby win was the latest example. Positioning and pacing will be key on Saturday evening, and any of the nine horses could emerge victoriously.

Even 50-1 long shot Fenwick has a chance.

“This is one of those deals where you can stop and take a breath and say, ‘You know what, we can do this,'” trainer Kevin McKathan said, per Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press. “It can happen.”

Could we see two shocking upsets in the first two legs of the Triple Crown? It’s possible but unlikely. Look for Simplification to set the pace early, with both Epicenter and Secret Oath closing late. Epicenter is the favorite for a reason, but Secret Oath has the acceleration needed to overtake him in the final furlong—much like Rich Strike did in his own historic win.

Prediction

1. Secret Oath ($900,000 prize)

2. Epicenter ($300,000)

3. Simplification ($165,000)

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