Predicting Every 2021 MLB Silver Slugger Award Winner

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Mark Blinch/Getty Images

Each year, the Silver Slugger Award is given to the best offensive player at each position in each league, as voted on by players and managers who are unable to pick players on their own team.

The finalists were revealed on Oct. 25, setting the stage for the winners to be announced on MLB Network at 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 11.

Before the winners are named, let’s take a deep dive into the offensive numbers for each player and pick the most deserving winner among the finalists.

The advanced metrics Offensive Rating (OFF) and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), along with extra-base hits and home run totals, are the main statistics we used to determine our pick and are referenced throughout this article. For a further explanation of each metric, take a look at the FanGraphs glossary.

Let the debate begin!

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Salvador PerezSteph Chambers/Getty Images

The Finalists

Salvador Perez, KC: 21.2 OFF, 127 wRC+, 72 XBH (48 HR)
Gary Sanchez, NYY: -3.8 OFF, 99 wRC+, 37 XBH (23 HR)
Mike Zunino, TB: 16.1 OFF, 134 wRC+, 46 XBH (33 HR)

Props to Mike Zunino for an unexpected offensive breakthrough, but this one is a layup.

Salvador Perez set the single-season record for home runs by a catcher in 2021, leading the AL in that category and RBI (121) on the strength of a massive second half. Over the final two months of the season, he had a .931 OPS with 22 home runs in 243 plate appearances, and he is as close to a lock as it gets to win his fourth career Silver Slugger.

New York Yankees slugger Gary Sanchez tied for fourth among catchers with 23 home runs, but he has no business being one of the finalists. How about Yasmani Grandal instead?

Winner: Salvador Perez (KC)

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Buster PoseyRob Leiter/Getty Images

The Finalists

Omar Narvaez, MIL: -3.0 OFF, 99 wRC+, 31 XBH (11 HR)
Buster Posey, SF: 20.4 OFF, 140 wRC+, 41 XBH (18 HR)
J.T. Realmuto, PHI: 10.9 OFF, 108 wRC+, 46 XBH (17 HR)
Will Smith, LAD: 18.4 OFF, 130 wRC+, 46 XBH (25 HR)

After opting out of the 2020 season, Buster Posey came back revitalized for his age-34 season, hitting .304/.390/.499 with 23 doubles and 18 home runs in 454 plate appearances. The San Francisco Giants did a good job keeping him rested, but he still produced counting numbers that stack up to anyone at the catcher position.

Will Smith is going to win a handful of Silver Slugger awards before his career is over, and J.T. Realmuto remains one of the most well-rounded catchers in baseball, but Posey is deserving of his fifth Silver Slugger win.

Omar Narvaez batted .300/.396/.469 with 20 extra-base hits before the All-Star break, but hit just .225/.272/.320 during the second half.

Winner: Buster Posey (SF)

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Joshua Bessex/Getty Images

The Finalists

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR: 54.1 OFF, 166 wRC+, 78 XBH (48 HR)
Yuli Gurriel, HOU: 23.6 OFF, 134 wRC+, 46 XBH (15 HR)
Matt Olson, OAK: 37.8 OFF, 146 wRC+, 74 XBH (39 HR)


According to the Offense metric at FanGraphs, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the most productive offensive player in baseball, edging out Bryce Harper (50.7), Juan Soto (48.8) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (48.5). Other stats back that up.

The 22-year-old hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 home runs and 111 RBI, delivering on the lofty expectations that have followed him since he was an elite prospect in the Toronto Blue Jays farm system.

The other two finalists here are more than deserving of recognition, with Matt Olson enjoying an MVP-caliber season and Yuli Gurriel winning the AL batting title.

Winner: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)

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Paul GoldschmidtQuinn Harris/Getty Images

The Finalists

Freddie Freeman, ATL: 34.4 OFF, 135 wRC+, 58 XBH (31 HR)
Paul Goldschmidt, STL: 34.9 OFF, 138 wRC+, 69 XBH (31 HR)
Max Muncy, LAD: 32.1 OFF, 140 wRC+, 64 XBH (36 HR)
Joey Votto, CIN: 27.8 OFF, 140 wRC+, 60 XBH (36 HR)

This was a tough one.

All four of these players have a compelling case. The nod ultimately went to Paul Goldschmidt thanks to his narrow edge in OFF and the role he played in propelling the St. Louis Cardinals to an unlikely postseason berth.

The four-time Silver Slugger winner hit .330/.402/.618 with 18 home runs and 50 RBI in 70 games after the All-Star break, which coincided with the Cardinals’ surge up the NL wild-card standings and into the postseason.

Believe it or not, Joey Votto has never won a Silver Slugger Award.

Winner: Paul Goldschmidt (STL)

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Marcus SemienMark Blinch/Getty Images

The Finalists

Jose Altuve, HOU: 27.2 OFF, 130 wRC+, 64 XBH (31 HR)
DJ LeMahieu, NYY: -1.9 OFF, 100 wRC+, 35 XBH (10 HR)
Jorge Polanco, MIN: 20.6 OFF, 122 wRC+, 70 XBH (33 HR)
Marcus Semien, TOR: 31.5 OFF, 131 wRC+, 86 XBH (45 HR)

One of these things is not like the other.

The fact that DJ LeMahieu is a finalist over Brandon Lowe (32.8 OFF, 137 wRC+, 70 XBH, 39 HR) is laughably bad work on the part of the players and coaches who voted for the finalists.

At least they got it right with the other three, and Marcus Semien should be the clear winner after leading the majors with 86 extra-base hits and setting the single-season record for home runs by a second baseman. The one-year, $18 million deal he signed proved to be one of the biggest steals of the offseason.

Tip of the cap to Jorge Polanco, who quietly posted a .914 OPS with 21 home runs in 70 games after the All-Star break. Not much went right for the Minnesota Twins this year, but he was great.

Winner: Marcus Semien (TOR)

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Ozzie AlbiesTodd Kirkland/Getty Images

The Finalists

Ozzie Albies, ATL: 14.4 OFF, 107 wRC+, 77 XBH (30 HR)
Jake Cronenworth, SD: 15.3 OFF, 116 wRC+, 61 XBH (21 HR)
Jonathan India, CIN: 16.6 OFF, 122 wRC+, 57 XBH (21 HR)
Justin Turner, LAD: 19.8 OFF, 127 wRC+, 49 XBH (27 HR)

Hahaha, really? Justin Turner is a finalist for Silver Slugger at second base?

The 36-year-old has played exactly one inning at second base over the past six years, and it wasn’t even this year. That’s on par with the Ryan Tepera MVP vote last year as far as ridiculous MLB award ballots are concerned.

As for who actually deserves to win the award, all three of the other players have a solid case. The significant lead in extra-base hits and 20 stolen bases in 24 attempts give Ozzie Albies the edge here, but all three would be reasonable choices.

Winner: Ozzie Albies (ATL)

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Jose RamirezIcon Sportswire/Getty Images

The Finalists

Rafael Devers, BOS: 27.6 OFF, 134 wRC+, 76 XBH (38 HR)
Jose Ramirez, CLE: 35.4 OFF, 137 wRC+, 73 XBH (36 HR)
Kyle Seager, SEA: -3.0 OFF, 99 wRC+, 65 XBH (35 HR)

By old-school measures, Rafael Devers would be the pick for Silver Slugger honors with an advantage over Jose Ramirez in batting average (.279 vs. .266), home runs (38 vs. 36) and RBI (113 vs. 103). But by almost any advanced metric, Ramirez was the better offensive player by a narrow margin.

Both will likely finish in the top 10 in AL MVP voting on the strength of their offensive production, and either one would be a fine pick for Silver Slugger. As a fan of the advanced metric approach, Ramirez gets the nod here, but don’t be surprised if the voters decide differently.

As for Kyle Seager, his 35 home runs were nice, but a .212 average and .285 on-base percentage don’t exactly scream elite offensive player.

Winner: Jose Ramirez (CLE)

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Austin RileyTodd Kirkland/Getty Images

The Finalists

Nolan Arenado, STL: 10.7 OFF, 113 wRC+, 71 XBH (34 HR)
Manny Machado, SD: 15.8 OFF, 122 wRC+, 61 XBH (28 HR)
Austin Riley, ATL: 25.7 OFF, 135 wRC+, 67 XBH (33 HR)
Patrick Wisdom, CHC: 6.6 OFF, 115 wRC+, 41 XBH (28 HR)

Austin Riley separated himself from the pack among NL third basemen with a huge second half. He picked up the slack in a big way for the Atlanta Braves offense following a season-ending injury to Ronald Acuna Jr., and he is a relatively easy pick here.

The 24-year-old hit .303/.367/.531 with 33 doubles, 33 home runs and 107 RBI, and he had a .976 OPS with 19 long balls after the All-Star break.

Patrick Wisdom hit 28 home runs in 106 games with the Chicago Cubs as one of the biggest out-of-nowhere surprises of 2021, and he is the lone finalist for the North Siders. The 30-year-old could also see some down-ballot support for NL Rookie of the Year honors.

Interestingly enough, the runner-up among NL third basemen should probably be Justin Turner.

Winner: Austin Riley (ATL)

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Carlos CorreaTim Warner/Getty Images

The Finalists

Tim Anderson, CWS: 19.6 OFF, 120 wRC+, 48 XBH (17 HR)
Bo Bichette, TOR: 25.2 OFF, 122 wRC+, 60 XBH (29 HR)
Xander Bogaerts, BOS: 23.7 OFF, 130 wRC+, 58 XBH (23 HR)
Carlos Correa, HOU: 26.3 OFF, 134 wRC+, 61 XBH (26 HR)

This was the most difficult decision of any position.

Tim Anderson is the clear No. 4 guy among this star-studded group, but the other three can be slotted in any order, which speaks to the tremendous amount of shortstop talent there is around the AL today.

Houston Astros star Carlos Correa has a slight edge over the rest of the group in OFF and wRC+ so he gets the nod. It would be his first Silver Slugger win ahead of what figures to be a lucrative foray into free agency.

Bo Bichette led the AL with 191 hits, and he has been an extra-base hit machine since breaking into the league a few years ago. Still only 23 years old, he might have the most offensive upside of anyone at the shortstop position not named Fernando Tatis Jr.

Winner: Carlos Correa (HOU)

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Fernando Tatis Jr.Denis Poroy/Getty Images

The Finalists

Willy Adames, MIL: 19.6 OFF, 135 wRC+, 46 XBH (20 HR)
Brandon Crawford, SF: 27.8 OFF, 139 wRC+, 57 XBH (24 HR)
Fernando Tatis Jr., SD: 48.5 OFF, 156 wRC+, 73 XBH (42 HR)
Trea Turner, WAS/LAD: 39.5 OFF, 142 wRC+, 65 XBH (28 HR)

Brandon Crawford had the best season of his career in 2021, and Trea Turner led the NL in batting average (.328), hits (195), total bases (319) and steals (32), but there shouldn’t be much debate about this one.

Fernando Tatis Jr. missed some time, playing in only 130 games, but he still led the NL with 42 home runs while hitting .282/.364/.611 and swiping 25 bases in 29 attempts for good measure. If any active player is going to join the 40/40 club in the near future, the smart money is on Tatis.

To clarify, we are only including the stats Willy Adames compiled in his 99 games with the Milwaukee Brewers, since he was playing in the AL with the Tampa Bay Rays before he was traded.

Winner: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)

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Cedric MullinsIcon Sportswire/Getty Images

The Finalists

Randy Arozarena, TB: 22.0 OFF, 128 wRC+, 55 XBH (20 HR)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., TOR: 3.0 OFF, 107 wRC+, 51 XBH (21 HR)
Mitch Haniger, SEA: 15.9 OFF, 120 wRC+, 64 XBH (39 HR)
Teoscar Hernandez, TOR: 25.5 OFF, 132 wRC+, 61 XBH (32 HR)
Aaron Judge, NYY: 37.5 OFF, 148 wRC+, 63 XBH (39 HR)
Cedric Mullins, BAL: 34.2 OFF, 136 wRC+, 72 XBH (30 HR)
Hunter Renfroe, BOS: 7.3 OFF, 114 wRC+, 64 XBH (31 HR)
Kyle Tucker, HOU: 35.2 OFF, 147 wRC+, 70 XBH (30 HR)

Aaron Judge and Cedric Mullins are no-brainers.

Judge finally managed to avoid the injury bug and played in 148 games, hitting .287/.373/.544 with 39 home runs. Mullins was the biggest breakout star of 2021, and he became the first 30/30 player in Baltimore Orioles history.

It’s the third spot where the debate really begins.

Teoscar Hernandez had another great year, and Mitch Haniger smashed 39 home runs in his return from injury, but Kyle Tucker has the best numbers of the bunch.  The 24-year-old hit .294/.359/.557 with 37 doubles, 30 home runs and 92 RBI, and he was statistically the most productive hitter in the highest-scoring offense in baseball.

Winner: Aaron Judge (NYY), Cedric Mullins (BAL), Kyle Tucker (HOU)

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Bryce HarperIcon Sportswire/Getty Images

The Finalists

Nick Castellanos, CIN: 29.6 OFF, 140 wRC+, 73 XBH (34 HR)
Adam Duvall, MIA/ATL: 0.0 OFF, 103 wRC+, 57 XBH (38 HR)
Bryce Harper, PHI: 50.7 OFF, 170 wRC+, 78 XBH (35 HR)
Tyler O’Neill, STL: 35.1 OFF, 144 wRC+, 62 XBH (34 HR)
Bryan Reynolds, PIT: 37.6 OFF, 142 wRC+, 77 XBH (24 HR)
Juan Soto, WAS: 48.8 OFF, 163 wRC+, 51 XBH (29 HR)
Jesse Winker, CIN: 23.3 OFF, 148 wRC+, 57 XBH (24 HR)

Similar to the AL outfielder picture, the NL side has two no-brainers in NL MVP front-runners Bryce Harper and Juan Soto.

The Phillies missed the postseason again, but Harper did his part, hitting .330/.458/.736 with 19 home runs and 46 RBI in his final 58 games. Meanwhile, Soto finished with more walks (145) than strikeouts (93) and hit an absurd .348/.525/.639 in 322 plate appearances after the All-Star break.

The final spot is a toss-up between a trio of NL Central outfielders Bryan Reynolds, Tyler O’Neill and Nick Castellanos. With a slight advantage in OFF and extra-base hit total, Reynolds is the pick. His ability to produce without any real protection in the Pittsburgh lineup was impressive.

Winner: Bryce Harper (PHI), Juan Soto (WAS), Bryan Reynolds (PIT)

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Shohei OhtaniSteph Chambers/Getty Images

The Finalists

Yordan Alvarez, HOU: 28.6 OFF, 138 wRC+, 69 XBH (33 HR)
Nelson Cruz, MIN/TB: 14.0 OFF, 122 wRC+, 54 XBH (32 HR)
Joey Gallo, NYY: 21.2 OFF, 123 wRC+, 52 XBH (38 HR)
Shohei Ohtani, LAA: 42.9 OFF, 152 wRC+, 80 XBH (46 HR)
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY: 19.0 OFF, 137 wRC+, 54 XBH (35 HR)

Shohei Ohtani is the clear winner here, but there are a few other interesting tidbits worth discussing among the finalists.

First of all, where is J.D. Martinez (18.4 OFF, 128 wRC+, 73 XBH, 28 HR)? The 34-year-old bounced back nicely from a poor 2020 season and led the AL with 42 doubles on top of his 28 home runs and 99 RBI.

Also, why is Joey Gallo listed as a designated hitter? He is a finalist for Gold Glove honors in right field and played mostly left field following his trade to the New York Yankees. He was used as a DH in only 14 games in 2021.

As long as Ohtani walks away with the hardware, no one will remember who the other finalists were for the award, but those were two of the more head-scratching decisions.

Winner: Shohei Ohtani (LAA)

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Jacob deGromElsa/Getty Images

The Finalists

Madison Bumgarner, ARI: 4-for-39, 1 2B, 3 RBI
Jacob deGrom, NYM: 12-for-33, 1 2B, 6 RBI
Max Fried, ATL: 15-for-55, 3 2B, 5 RBI
German Marquez, COL: 14-for-53, 5 2B, 1 HR, 9 RBI


Madison Bumgarner (2014, 2015) and German Marquez (2018) have both won a Silver Slugger in the past. While Bumgarner seems to be a finalist on reputation alone, the other three have compelling cases.

Fried led all pitchers with 15 hits, and Marquez paced the position with six extra-base hits and 22 total bases.

However, it’s tough to ignore the .364 batting average that Jacob deGrom posted over 33 plate appearances. He was the only pitcher with more than 10 plate appearances to post a positive OFF value in 2021.

As long as Bumgarner doesn’t win on reputation in a season where he went 4-for-39 with 29 strikeouts, any of the other candidates would be a deserving choice.

Winner: Jacob deGrom (NYM)

     

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.