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Kris Bryant isn’t likely to solve much in Colorado.Andy Cross/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images/Getty Images
Spring is always a time for Major League Baseball fans to be optimistic, and perhaps especially so this year. Despite the 99-day lockout, it was a wild offseason on the free-agent and trade markets.
All the same, we’re here to say “humbug” about deals that just plain make us nervous.
Specifically, there are three trades and four free-agent signings that we think have the potential to crash and burn in 2022—and beyond in some cases. Not so much because of the cost that teams paid to acquire players, but because the players have red flags that could come back to bite said teams.
Starting with the trades, let’s get to it.
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Billie Weiss/Getty Images
The Deal: Minnesota Twins get 3B Gio Urshela and C Gary Sanchez; New York Yankees get 3B Josh Donaldson, SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa and C Ben Rortvedt
To be fair, the trade in which the Twins got Urshela and Sanchez back from the Yankees was merely one step in a three-step sequence that resulted in them signing Carlos Correa.
But while that helps justify the trade in retrospect, it hardly guarantees that it will prove to be a good deal.
Though Urshela and Sanchez have star-caliber seasons in their past, they came to Minnesota as depreciated assets after combining for 1.3 rWAR in 2021. Between offseason elbow surgery and three stints on the injured list, health was a factor for Urshela. For Sanchez, it was more of the same after a lost 2020 season.
As they’re a combined 3-for-28, neither player is back on track offensively so far in spring training. Even if that doesn’t prove to be a bad omen, this trade could still sting the Twins on defense. Sanchez’s issues behind the plate are well documented, and Urshela’s metrics generally undercut the impression left by his highlight reel.
Even if the ultimate prize was Correa, it shouldn’t be overlooked that the Twins gave up an MVP-winning third baseman, a Gold Glove-winning shortstop and a well-regarded defensive catcher to acquire Urshela and Sanchez. As an entry into the “upside play” genre, it’s all a tad too risky for our liking.
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Charlie Riedel/Associated Press
The Deal: LF Jesse Winker and 3B Eugenio Suarez; Cincinnati Reds get OF Jake Fraley, RHP Justin Dunn, LHP Brandon Williamson and PTBNL
As for what’s wrong with this deal, it’s never ideal when the most expensive player in a trade is also the least likely to contribute anything.
Eugenio Suarez came to Seattle with three years and $35 million left on his contract, the entirety of which is now the responsibility of the Mariners. It’s not a huge commitment in a vacuum, but in this case it’s attached to a player who’s accounted for minus-0.1 rWAR over the last two seasons.
By hitting 46 home runs, Eugenio Suarez has at least retained some of the power that he showed off while hitting 49 homers for the Reds in 2019. But he’s hit under the Mendoza line in the process, notably with diminishing returns against fastballs. And this was even with the benefit of a hitter-friendly home park.
It’s therefore up to Winker to make this trade worth it for the Mariners. And in spite of his excellent 140 OPS+ over the last two seasons, his own question marks include a platoon split, bad defense and a history of significant injuries.
Granted, the Mariners didn’t pay an exorbitant acquisition cost to get Winker and Suarez. That will be little comfort, though, if their already glaring problems derail their chance at stardom in Seattle.
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Michael Dwyer/Associated Press
The Deal: Boston Red Sox get OF Jackie Bradley Jr., SS David Hamilton and 3B Alex Binelas; Milwaukee Brewers get RF Hunter Renfroe
The Red Sox raised plenty of eyebrows when they traded Renfroe for Bradley before the lockout, but the deal isn’t entirely devoid of theoretical justifications.
The Gold Glove-winning Bradley should boost a defense that was the worst in baseball by outs above average in 2021. The Red Sox also got two legitimate prospects back, as FanGraphs ranks Hamilton and Binelas as the team’s No. 15 and No. 17 talents, respectively.
Trouble is, Bradley will only be a viable everyday option in right field if he produces at the plate. This is not a given. He’s almost certainly not going to do worse than last year’s 34 OPS+, but he perhaps won’t do much better. Even before his results finally cratered in 2021, his expected results had already been trending down.
Though Renfroe is a flawed hitter in his own right, he’s been a consistent power source in four of the last five seasons. That includes last year, in which his 31 blasts made him Boston’s second-leading home run hitter.
It was more so because of his arm than his glove, but Renfroe was also competent enough in the field last year to end up as a Gold Glove finalist. Especially considering that the Red Sox took on more money to acquire Bradley, it’s easy to see them regretting not simply keeping Renfroe and signing Trevor Story anyway.
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Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press
The Deal: 1 year, $25 million
On account of how he’s literally Justin Verlander—as in, the same guy with an MVP and two Cy Young Awards—it ought to be easy to be high on the Houston Astros’ deal with Justin Verlander.
It has, however, been a couple years since Verlander was last himself.
Following his unreal season in 2019, Verlander made just one start in July 2020 before his arm quit on him and he had to have Tommy John surgery. He was 37 at the time, making him one of the oldest pitchers to ever undergo the procedure. He’s now 39, making him one of baseball’s oldest active pitchers, period.
Further, Verlander will no longer be working with pitching coach Brent Strom, who departed the Astros in November. It likewise can’t be ignored that the veteran is returning to a post-sticky-stuff environment. We can’t say with 100 percent certainty that this is relevant to him…but reports and data sure suggest it is.
Add all this together, and there’s than a non-zero chance that Verlander won’t pitch like a No. 1 starter in 2022. Considering that they don’t otherwise have another No. 1 to fall back on, that would be a major hurdle for the Astros to overcome. If Verlander struggles and his 2023 option vests by way of him reaching 130 innings, the team could be in for more of the same next year.
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John Raoux/Associated Press
The Deal: 6 years, $140 million
When your team has a defensive deficiency at shortstop, your team could do worse than asking Javier Baez to fix it.
Such is the bargain the Detroit Tigers made when they inked Baez prior to the lockout. Whereas their shortstops accounted for minus-nine outs above average in 2021, Baez is a four-time Fielding Bible Award winner who tallied plus-31 OAA at short just three years ago.
It could therefore look like a fluke that Baez posted a goose egg at short in the OAA column last year. But then again, perhaps not. His defensive quality has always hinged on effectively executing his flashy style in the field. To the extent that he made a career-high 20 errors, this is where he slipped in 2021.
Baez’s bat, meanwhile, is its own headache. He’s now so undisciplined that he has the worst walk-to-strikeout ratio of any hitter over the last two seasons. And while he did salvage his 2021 season with a hot September, immediately preceding that was a 173-game stretch in which he had an 86 wRC+.
If the Tigers signed Baez because they saw things they could fix, it could prove to be a worthwhile experiment. But if they simply wanted him as is, they’ll have no right to claim surprise if his defensive and offensive issues persist.
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Matt York/Associated Press
The Deal: 7 years, $182 million
Though the signing itself is risky, it’s hard to fault the timing of Detroit’s deal with Baez. The club had to dwell in the American League Central cellar during its rebuild, but that the process indeed seems to be nearly over.
By contrast, the timing alone of the Colorado Rockies’ deal with Kris Bryant is all wrong.
Had the team not traded Nolan Arenado and extended Trevor Story and Jon Gray, it would have made some sense. In reality, though, all three are gone now. What’s more, this same reality also includes back-to-back losing seasons and one of baseball’s lesser farm systems.
Bryant thus looks less like a finishing piece and more like a Band-Aid, and a used one at that. He hasn’t been a superstar-caliber player since his early seasons with the Chicago Cubs. That’s partially owed to a decline in his athleticism, which makes him an odd fit for an everyday gig in Coors Field’s humongous outfield.
Though his new deal does include a full no-trade clause, it’s easy to imagine Bryant leaving Denver well before the end of his contract in 2028. But it might have to be by way of a salary-dump trade, as the Rockies will be able to get something for him only if his prime outlasts its currently iffy outlook.
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Kelsey Grant/Getty Images
The Deal: 10 years, $325 million
It actually is possible to sign a $300 million contract and subsequently live up to it. Just ask Bryce Harper, who’s been worth every penny three years into his 13-year, $330 million pact with the Philadelphia Phillies.
However, much will need to go right for Corey Seager to follow Harper’s fine example.
As he’s posted a .306/.381/.545 slash line over the last two seasons while also turning in an MVP-winning performance in the 2020 World Series, there isn’t much doubt about Seager’s talent for offense. Yet he’s often too injured to show it off, as he’s missed 44 percent of all possible games since 2018.
The big blow was the Tommy John surgery that Seager underwent in 2018. Kevin Goldstein wrote for FanGraphs that his arm strength hasn’t been the same since then. This is not the only reason to suspect he’s not long for shortstop, as he’s always been a tad too big and not quite athletic enough for the position.
Like the Rockies, the Texas Rangers are also looking at an uncertain contention timeline after a 102-loss season in 2021. And if Seager’s pitfalls do indeed ensnare the Rangers, it’ll be insult to injury if the only way they can offload him is through a salary-dump trade.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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