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The 2022 offseason is mere weeks old, and it’s already one of the most landscape-altering offseasons we’ve seen. Franchise cornerstones Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill have all switched teams since March began.
The movement of this much star power would have seemed outlandish a few years ago. It seemed highly unlikely just a couple of months ago. The reality is, however, that in today’s NFL, only a handful of players can be considered truly “untouchable.”
Even future Hall of Famers like Wilson or Adams can be dumped via free agency or trade if they start to age out or become too expensive. No, the salary cap isn’t a myth.
This is a newer trend but not one that’s suddenly going to go away in a year. The 2023 offseason could end up just as wild as this one, with several faces of the franchise finding new homes. Which of these franchise staples are most likely to be on the move next offseason? You’ll find the whos and the whys below.
We’re not covering retirement candidates here. Players are listed in alphabetical order.
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The New York Giants drafted running back Saquon Barkley second overall in 2018. He was a rookie Pro Bowler and Offensive Rookie of the Year and then a 1,000-yard rusher in his second season. However, injuries have derailed his career over the past two seasons.
Barkley suffered a torn ACL in 2019 and was hindered by an ankle injury this past season. Even when healthy, though, Barkley wasn’t as special as he was his rookie season. Barkley averaged just 3.7 yards per carry in 2021.
At this point, it will be hard for New York to justify giving a massive second contract to their star running back. Barring another truly special season, the Penn State product will likely head to free agency in 2023—if he isn’t traded first.
The Giants have admitted that they’re open to trading Barkley this offseason, though their price point suggests that they’d prefer to give him another year.
“Spoke with two teams, both of whom told me the Giants’ potential asking price for Saquon Barkley was very significant,” Jordan Schultz of The Game Day NFL tweeted. “One assistant GM also said: ‘I don’t get the sense they actually want to trade him.'”
If Barkley doesn’t get off to a hot start in 2022, he could be moved before he hits the open market.
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It’s hard to imagine the Buffalo Bills trading away wideout Stefon Diggs because he’s been an integral part of the offense for the last two seasons. However, It was also hard to see the Green Bay Packers trading Davante Adams, and that happened.
The reality is that Diggs will turn 30 during the 2023 season and may not be in Buffalo beyond that year anyway. He could also be angling for a new contract next offseason, which would be problematic.
Diggs is set to earn $18 million in 2023, the final year of his current contract. That’s solid money, but it’s below the going rate for No. 1 receivers. Adams just signed a deal worth $28 million annually. Buffalo, meanwhile, won’t be loaded with salary-cap space next offseason.
The Bills are projected to have just $15.9 million in cap space, the fourth-lowest total in the NFL. If Buffalo ate the dead money on Diggs’ contract, it would shave $13.6 million off the cap.
In other words, Buffalo will be in a position to save valuable cap space and land a hefty return in a trade. This is what the Kansas City Chiefs got when they traded away Tyreek Hill, and they were happy with the decision.
“Myself, my staff and our organization appreciate all he did for our team,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said in a team statement. “This move will also benefit the Chiefs: We now have cap space and additional draft picks to grow as a football team.”
Don’t be shocked if Buffalo makes a similar move next year.
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Running back Kareem Hunt has become a staple of the Cleveland Browns offense over the past three seasons. While he hasn’t been a Pro Bowler since 2017, when he also led the league in rushing with Kansas City—Hunt has been a tremendous No. 2 behind starter Nick Chubb.
Hunt missed nine games in 2021 because of a calf injury and COVID-19 protocols. When healthy in 2020, though, he amassed 841 rushing yards, 304 receiving yards and 11 combined touchdowns. Those are terrific numbers for a backup (he did start five games), and Hunt is talented enough to start for most teams.
In 2023, Hunt very well could be starting for a different franchise. The Browns have Chubb under contract through 2024, and they’ve done a great job of developing No. 3 back D’Ernest Johnson.
Johnson, who was given a right-of-first-refusal tender as a restricted free agent this offseason, only started two games in 2021. He still managed to tally 534 yards and three touchdowns while catching 19 passes for 137 yards.
Re-signing Hunt, who will be a free agent in 2023, will be difficult. Cleveland is projected to have $30.1 million in cap space. That’s the 11th-lowest projected total in the NFL. A significant chunk of that may go to cornerback Denzel Ward, who is entering the final year of his rookie deal now.
Financially, it would probably make more sense to let Hunt walk while re-signing Johnson or grabbing a back in the draft.
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The Atlanta Falcons’ decision to trade away quarterback Matt Ryan signaled the franchise’s intention to enter a rebuild mode. While the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals are proof that quick turnarounds can happen, Cincinnati also had its franchise quarterback, Joe Burrow, in place.
The Falcons have a placeholder in Marcus Mariota and may look to the 2022 draft for a new signal-caller. They’re likely to still be in rebuild mode by the time the 2023 offseason rolls around.
For two-time Pro Bowler defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, this could be a problem. Jarrett will be a free agent in 2023, and he’ll turn 30 the same spring. The Falcons and Jarrett will both be faced with tough decisions a year from now.
As The Athletic’s Jeff Schultz pointed out, the 6’0″, 305-pound Jarrett is undersized for the current defensive scheme but is important to the franchise and a local product (born in Atlanta). That doesn’t mean he’ll be quick to give the Falcons a hometown discount.
“Todd France, Jarrett’s agent, knows all this, and he’s notoriously tough (although fair),” Schultz wrote.
Jarrett got a taste of the Super Bowl following the 2016 season and may want to contend again rather than be part of a rebuild. The Falcons may not want to overpay for a less-than-perfect fit, and they may also be willing to do right by him—as they did when they sent Ryan to a potential contender.
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Packers running back Aaron Jones isn’t scheduled to be a free agent until 2025. However, there’s a reasonable chance that Green Bay looks to part with the 2020 Pro Bowler before then.
One reason is the presence of backup AJ Dillon. The 2020 second-round pick came on strong last year, finishing with 803 rushing yards, 313 receiving yards and seven combined touchdowns. He’s scheduled to be a free agent in 2024, and the Packers probably won’t pay both backs.
If Green Bay chooses Dillon, parting with Jones two years early would be financially beneficial. He’s scheduled to carry a cap hit of $20 million in 2023, and the Packers could save $10.4 million in cap space by trading or releasing him.
The Packers are scheduled to have $42.5 million in cap space next offseason, but a big chunk of that could go to cornerback Jaire Alexander—who will earn $13.3 million in 2022, the final year of his rookie contract.
This year’s franchise-tag value for cornerbacks was set at $17.3 million. That number should rise in 2023, and a long-term deal could be even more expensive. Jalen Ramsey, Marshon Lattimore and Marlon Humphrey all make more than $19 million annually.
If parting with Jones allows the Packers to lock up Alexander and make other free-agent moves, the Packers will do it. Jones can be great, but he’s only half of Green Bay’s backfield duo. The 27-year-old will likely have 1,000 regular-season carries worth of tread on the proverbial tires by the offseason—he’s at 822 now.
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This is admittedly one of the least likely entries on this list. The Los Angeles Rams have a knack for finding cap space, and they’re projected to be $36 million under the cap next season. However, if Kupp has another historic season—he had 145 catches, 1,947 yards and 16 receiving touchdowns in 2021 to lead the league in all three categories—he may demand to be the league’s highest-paid receiver.
That would present a problem.
Davante Adams briefly claimed the title of highest-paid receiver shortly after he was traded from Green Bay to the Las Vegas Raiders. He signed a new five-year, $140 million deal that will pay him $28 million annually. Tyreek Hill then signed a deal worth $30 million annually after being traded from the Chiefs to the Miami Dolphins.
Kupp will be entering the final year of his contract in 2023 and is set to earn $18 million. If he wants a raise to $30 million or more, Los Angeles may have no choice but to trade him.
General manager Les Snead has regularly used high draft picks as trade capital—acquiring players like Matthew Stafford, Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey—and getting a few back for Kupp could prove valuable.
The Adams trade delivered first- and second-round picks to Green Bay. Kupp would presumably command a similar haul. That’s an enticing return for a receiver who will turn 30 next offseason and a lot of assets for a franchise that won’t hold a first-round pick until 2024.
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David Becker/Associated Press
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is a star player and a two-time Pro Bowler. Can he be an elite franchise quarterback, though? That’s what Arizona has to find out during the 2022 season.
Murray has been terrific at times, but he has yet to deliver a playoff victory and was hampered by an ankle injury in 2021. Murray also removed references to the Cardinals on social media after the season—though he insists that it had nothing to do with the team.
“No, that was—like I said, if you’re a kid my age, you’re used to like…people take off all of their—that’s just a thing,” Murray told reporters.
However, Murray’s agent, Erik Burkhardt, also released a statement expressing Murray’s desire for a long-term deal that is “in line with the current QB market.”
Murray is eligible for an extension now, and Arizona must make a decision on his fifth-year option by May 2. Assuming the Cardinals exercise that option, Murray won’t be a free agent until 2024. However, should he fail to take Arizona further in the playoffs than a wild-card appearance, he may find himself in a situation similar to Baker Mayfield’s.
Rather than hand Murray a deal worth $40-plus million annually, the Cardinals may simply look to move on.
Contract information via Spotrac. Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference.
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