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Predictions for NFL’s Most Important Franchise-Tag Decisions in 2022 Free Agency

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    The franchise-tag window opened Tuesday, officially starting the clock on some important decisions for teams across the league. 

    For franchises that can’t come to terms right away with their premium free agents, the tag guarantees a player will remain on their roster for one more season and pays him based on a formula that factors in the top-five highest-paid players at his position or 120 percent of his previous year’s salary—whichever carries the higher number. 

    Teams have until March 8 to decide if they’ll use the tag. Most players would prefer not to receive the designation, as it doesn’t offer the long-term security of a multiyear free-agent deal.

    However, nine players were tagged in 2021 and 14 received the designation in 2020 before the depressed salary cap. 

    Several candidates could be tagged this season. Here are the most notable based on team role, previous production and team cap situation.

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    The Green Bay Packers are one of the offseason’s most fascinating teams. They still don’t know if Aaron Rodgers will return, request a trade or retire. 

    General manager Brian Gutekunst has even said the quarterback’s decision will determine what they do elsewhere. 

    That likely includes the future of elite wide receiver Davante Adams. In 2021, he was second in the league in receptions, third in yards and fifth in touchdown catches. 

    That kind of production will be difficult to replace. 

    However, long-term contract talks reportedly broke down before last season. Per Matt Schneidman of The Athletic, the receiver wanted a deal that surpassed DeAndre Hopkins’ $27.25 million annual average. 

    Ultimately, what happens with Adams could be tied to Rodgers. If the reigning NFL MVP comes back, the Packers have incentive to get a long-term deal done with Adams. The first season of a five-year, $125 million pact projects to cost around $9.1 million, per Schneidman.

    That would certainly be more cost-effective than the projected $18.5 million for the wide receiver franchise tag. For a team that’s $37.4 million over the cap, that $9.4 million difference is huge. 

    However, if Rodgers leaves, it makes it highly questionable whether the 29-year-old would want to be in Green Bay. That might leave the Packers with no recourse other than the franchise tag to force him into at least one more season. 

    Prediction: Long-term extension if Rodgers Stays. Tagged if Rodgers leaves.

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    David Zalubowski/Associated Press

    The Cincinnati Bengals were the breakout team of the year in 2021, and safety Jessie Bates III was a big part of that. Now they have to figure out if they want to commit big dollars to locking up the safety long term. 

    Specifically, the 24-year-old was instrumental in the playoff run with two interceptions and six passes defended. 

    Bates really broke out in 2020. His third season saw him earn All-Pro honors as he held opposing quarterbacks to a passer rating of 70.7. However, he had a down year by those standards in 2021. 

    He allowed a career-worst 12 yards per target and a passer rating of 122.0. 

    That should make negotiations interesting. According to Spotrac, his market value comes in at $14.4 million in average annual value, which would make him the sixth-highest-paid safety.

    Giving him the franchise tag would force him to prove he can get back to his 2020 form. However, his playoff performances should be enough proof. 

    Bates has made it clear he would like to be back in Cincinnati. He also told the NFL Network he doesn’t want that to happen under the tag.  

    The Bengals have shown they are willing to spend to win in recent years. The free-agent signings of D.J. Reader, Trey Hendrickson and Chidobe Awuzie are evidence. Now, they need to show they are willing to pay their homegrown talent. 

    Prediction: Bengals tag Bates before working out long-term deal.

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    David E. Klutho/Getty Images

    The Kansas City Chiefs have already made a sizable investment in left tackle Orlando Brown. They shipped a package of four picks, including first- and third-rounders in 2021 and fourth- and fifth-round picks in 2022 for Brown, a 2021 second-round selection and a sixth-round pick in 2022. 

    The pairing makes a lot of sense. The Chiefs desperately needed to improve the offensive line in front of Patrick Mahomes, and Brown wanted the opportunity to play left tackle after lining up on the right side in Baltimore. 

    Year one of the partnership worked out. Brown only allowed four sacks across 1,127 snaps for the Chiefs, per Pro Football Focus. He was once again one of the league’s most consistent tackles, proving he could play on the left side. 

    That left side distinction usually results in more money, and it’s time for Brown to get the payday he seeks. 

    The only question is whether the Chiefs can make that happen. 

    Given how much they gave up in the trade, it makes no sense to let Brown walk. However, they’ll want to keep other teams from negotiating with the 25-year-old. The only comparable tackle who could be on the market is Terron Armstead. 

    At $16.5 million, the projected offensive line tag is a number the Chiefs could live with for a year, and it would give them a season to figure out a long-term extension.

    Prediction: Chiefs tag Brown before working out long-term deal. 

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    Adam Hunger/Associated Press

    J.C. Jackson is the latest in a long line of elite cornerbacks the New England Patriots have come to a crossroads with. Stephon Gilmore, Asante Samuel and Malcolm Butler are all past examples. 

    All eventually walked or were traded.

    Jackson is set to hit free agency after an All-Pro season in which he had eight interceptions and 23 passes defended. 

    The Patriots have enjoyed his top-tier play for cheap. He earned $1.3 million in 2020 and $3.4 million in 2021. Now, the franchise tag, projected to be worth $17.5 million, could be in play. 

    Jackson recently revealed two interesting things to Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston. The first is that the team has not spoken to him about a long-term deal. The second is how he feels about the tag.

    “I love the game,” he told Perry. “If they tag me, I’m gonna go out there and play.” 

    That could open the door for the Pats to use the tag. They don’t have a long history of committing to corners for multiple years and big dollars, but they could have $33.8 million in cap space just through simple restructures, per Over the Cap.

    Still, it might not be ideal for Jackson, who would probably prefer to cash in with a longer contract, but the Pats could use one more year out of the elite corner after trading Gilmore last season. 

    Prediction: Patriots give Jackson the franchise tag. 

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    John Amis/Associated Press

    Harold Landry enjoyed his best season by far in the final year of his rookie contract with the Tennessee Titans. After notching just 5.5 sacks in year three, he set career highs in every important category by posting 75 tackles, 12 sacks, 14 tackles for loss and 43 total pressures

    Those kinds of numbers would usually make a long-term deal a no-brainer, but a few factors will make his free agency interesting. 

    The first is the five-year, $82.5 million contract the Titans handed to Bud Dupree last offseason. The former Pittsburgh Steeler was a disappointment in the first year of his deal, but they are stuck with his $19.2 million cap hit next season. 

    It’s part of why the Titans are $6.9 million over the cap. 

    If Landry hits the open market, he could be in line for a lucrative deal. Spotrac projects a four-year, $68.4 million contract for him. The franchise tag for defensive ends is projected to be $17.5 million, while it’s $18.5 million for linebackers. 

    Pass-rushers typically get paid in free agency, and the 25-year-old is one of the few in-prime edge-rushers who has proven production (31 sacks in four seasons). That will make it difficult to keep him off the open market, and paying the tag with Dupree on the books would be difficult given their cap situation. 

    Prediction: Titans don’t use tag, allow Landry to seek offers from other teams. 

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    Seth Wenig/Associated Press

    Dalton Schultz is one of the most intriguing franchise-tag options in the class. 

    The Dallas Cowboys will start the offseason more than $21 million over the cap, and Dak Prescott’s arsenal of weapons could take a free-agency hit. Schultz, Michael Gallup and Cedrick Wilson are all set to hit the open market. Those were receiver Nos. 3, 4 and 5 in terms of yardage for the team last season. 

    Schultz was the most productive with 78 catches, 808 yards and eight touchdowns. 

    The cap situation isn’t as dire as it sounds. The Cowboys could get to $48.8 million in cap space through simple restructures, per Over the Cap. That makes the $11 million tight end franchise tag an easier decision.

    The Cowboys might be hesitant to hand Schultz a long-term deal, though. They are last in projected cap space for the 2023 season, and Prescott’s cap hits only go up over the next three years. 

    Schultz has only been a full-time starter for two seasons, and while those years have gone well, the Cowboys could want to see one more season of production before making a long-term commitment. 

    Prediction: Cowboys give Schultz the franchise tag.

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    Adam Hunger/Associated Press

    Marcus Williams is one of the few players who were franchise-tagged last year and could get the distinction again.

    Typically, players don’t get tagged twice because the cost goes up 20 percent. However, this year’s safety tag is projected to be that high anyway at $13 million. That’s still less than the $15 million average annual value Spotrac projects he would get on the open market. 

    But the Saints are $76.2 million over the cap, the league’s worst number.

    There’s obviously room for them to get in better shape with some restructures, but the tag would start the clock on the Saints’ ability to get a long-term deal done. If they can’t, they won’t be able to restructure his fully guaranteed tag money. 

    With Terron Armstead also set to hit free agency, they’ll be walking a tight rope to avoid losing some of their best players. 

    Williams is a great safety. He finished seventh in PFF’s final grades at the position and gave up a 48.8 percent completion percentage when targeted

    However, after playing on the tag last year, he has every right to want to test his value on the open market. The Saints should be hesitant to use the tag, too, as it limits their flexibility. 

    Prediction: Saints don’t use tag, allow Williams to seek offers from other teams. 

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    David Becker/Associated Press

    Mike Williams is an interesting free agent. On one hand, if the Los Angeles Chargers receiver could put up numbers like he did in 2021 every year, he would be a no-brainer to bring back on a long-term contract. 

    But he hasn’t proved that. 

    In five years, he has posted two 1,000-yard seasons. The 27-year-old’s career got off to a slow start because of injuries. After fracturing his neck at Clemson, he missed a significant portion of his rookie season with a vertebral disk hernia. 

    Since then, he’s remained mostly healthy, but his production has been inconsistent. Even his 2021 season was uneven. He finished with 76 catches for 1,146 yards and nine touchdowns, but from Weeks 6 through 11, he only had one game with more than 90 yards. 

    The franchise tag is projected to be $18.5 million for receivers, which is only slightly more than the $16.7 million average annual salary that Spotrac projects for his market value. The Chargers are projected to have $57.5 million in cap space, so they can easily afford the tag. 

    That is probably the best route. With Keenan Allen already on a significant contract, this would buy the Chargers another year to evaluate if handing a massive pact to Williams is the right move. 

    It also ensures they continue to give Justin Herbert the best arsenal possible while he’s on his rookie deal. 

    Prediction: Chargers give Williams the franchise tag.   

           

    All contract and salary cap information via Spotrac unless otherwise noted. All advanced statistics via Pro Football Referenceunless otherwise noted.  

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