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A full week of NBA regular season basketball is complete, and that means, in no uncertain terms, it’s time to rank absolutely everything.
Let’s begin with the performance of every team’s most-used starting five, shall we?
Please note this exercise is not predictive. We are merely ranking the units according to their point differential per 100 possessions. That makes this a snapshot of how things stand and which five-man arrangements have done the most with their minutes so far rather than a portrait of the long term. We will discuss outliers and big-picture trajectories to preserve and spotlight down-the-line expectations.
In the absence of extensive samples, we will also default to starting fives that have made the most appearances for each team. When different versions are tied, we will roll with the lineup that has recorded more total possessions.
Prioritizing floor time will bounce fivesomes that profile as permanent starting units from this process. That’s life sometimes. It’d make more sense to override volume if we were ranking every team’s best and most preferred opening group independent of results. That’s not what we’re doing.
Because once more, with feeling, this is meant to be a look at which starting fives have fared the best in the playing time they’ve already been allotted.
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Most-Used Starting Five: James Harden, Joe Harris, Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin, Nicolas Claxton
Possessions Played: 43
Net Rating: Minus-51.2
Long-Term Outlook: James Harden will lay fewer bricks and they’ll be fine.
This lineup has already received its first tweak of the season.
And, no, it wasn’t the return of Kyrie Irving.
Bruce Brown was subbed in for Nicolas Claxton during the Brooklyn Nets’ win Monday night win over the Washington Wizards. They shouldn’t need to worry too much about making that their new starting five, returning to Claxton or toggling between different versions all year.
Opponents are shooting 52.9 percent from deep against this group, which is banging in just 15.4 percent of its own treys. That won’t hold forever. At the bare minimum, Harden (48.4 true shooting) and Harris (33.3 percent on twos) will not remain as collectively freezing cold from the floor. The Nets in general will be fine.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Eric Bledsoe, Reggie Jackson, Paul George, Marcus Morris Sr., Ivica Zubac
Possessions Played: 43
Net Rating: Minus-45.0
Long-Term Outlook: Onward and upward.
Defense has so far betrayed this quintet through two appearances. (Morris did not play Monday night.) It’s surrendering 163.6 points per 100 possessions while fouling opponents on 35.1 percent of their plays.
For those who may not know, that is disastrously high.
Aspects of the defense could remain problematic. Eventually replacing Morris with a healthy Serge Ibaka (back) doesn’t significantly beef up their rebounding presence. But enemy scorers won’t be shooting 90 percent at the rim, 50 percent from mid-range and 57.9 percent on triples until the end of time.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Kristaps Porzingis, Dwight Powell
Possessions Played: 49
Net Rating: Minus-32.9
Long-Term Outlook: Their ceiling may not be obscenely high, but they have a much loftier floor.
The level-headed realist in me feels the urge to point out the Dallas Mavericks’ opening lineup has made just two appearances, and that their offensive structure didn’t unfold as wonkily in Game No. 2. The snarky, well-meaning, not-entirely-kidding troll in me remains miffed at how the organization continues trying to make this lineup happen.
Playing Porzingis beside Maxi Kleber makes so much more sense than leashing him to Powell. Kleber no longer has fringe-wing speed, but his offensive range is more established and he allows KP to serve as the primary screener in the half-court without issue.
Anyway…two games is two games is two games. This lineup will inevitably be fine, because Doncic is amazing, and because everyone will combine to shoot better than sub-50 percent at the rim and sub-29 percent from beyond the arc.
Here, though, is to hoping KP has his offensive license reined in a tad. There is no world in which he should lead them in shot attempts per 100 possessions for the entire year.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Deandre Ayton
Possessions Played: 127
Long-Term Outlook: Give it a few weeks before calling for Cam Johnson’s insertion.
Try as I might, I cannot bring myself to care about the struggles of the Phoenix Suns’ should-be top-of-the-line unit.
Only two lineups within this exercise have tallied more possessions, which could be a red flag, but this group took a while to find its groove last year. Early-season warts gave way to a net rating firmly in the green across a huge sample size. The same trend line should be followed now.
Expecting more immediate results is perfectly acceptable. But give Booker time to work his way back from COVID-19 before losing sleep. And trust that floater-extraordinaire, apparently, Jae Crowder won’t drill under 14 percent of his threes for eternity.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Luguentz Dort, Darius Bazley, Derrick Favors
Possessions Played: 64
Net Rating: Minus-28.1
Long-Term Outlook: It might be time to start rethinking Darius Bazley’s inclusion.
Ask Oklahoma City Thunder team president Sam Presti, and he’ll probably tell you that this is too high—that his squad needs to do a better job of securing a high lottery spot lest he have to shut down SGA for one-third of the season.
Relax, I’m kidding.
Read into any OKC results at your own risk. The Thunder remain in self-discovery mode. It matters more that Giddey looks like a crafty-as-hell passer at the NBA level and that SGA maintains his wily change of pace despite crummy efficiency.
One adjustment they might want to consider: removing Bazley or Favors for Kenrich Williams. Their front line isn’t assembled to defend this year. They might as well steer into the more consistent floor-spacer and finisher around the basket.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Killian Hayes, Frank Jackson, Saddiq Bey, Jerami Grant, Isaiah Stewart
Possessions Played: 73
Net Rating: Minus-20.5
Long-Term Outlook: Get well soon, Cade.
All things Saddiq Bey remain a revelation for the Detroit Pistons. Everything else about this lineup is kind of blah.
Detroit needs an infusion of offensive creativity more than anything. This group is shooting 21.6 percent on above-the-break threes and knocking down just 26.1 percent of its looks from the corners. The rim pressure is largely fine. The finishing once they get there is not.
Getting Cade Cunningham back from a sprained right ankle will go a long way. Maybe it doesn’t noticeably impact the measurable returns. He is still a rookie, and the Pistons need to let Hayes continue going through the motions.
Every fathomable lineup, however, is infinitely more watchable with this year’s No. 1 overall pick headlining it.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Malcolm Brogdon, Chris Duarte, Justin Holiday, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner
Possessions Played: 91
Net Rating: Minus-16.7
Long-Term Outlook: Hurry back, Caris or T.J.
Duarte’s welcome-to-the-NBA explosion has not spared the Indiana Pacers’ starting five from offensive woes. This unit is scoring south of 99 points per 100 possessions while converting 12.5 percent of its above-the-break treys and failing to put satisfactory pressure on the basket.
Caris LeVert (back) has returned to practice. His debut should help. He isn’t the cleanest fit away from the ball, but he’s another off-the-dribble creator who can scramble set defenses.
Who the Pacers remove to make room for him seems like a coin toss. Duarte has played so well that the answer might be Holiday. Both could be demoted to the second unit once T.J. Warren (foot) rejoins the rotation. This specific lineup, meanwhile, may have more to offer when Turner stays out of foul trouble and if he doesn’t subject himself to wild fluctuations on offense.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Kemba Walker, Evan Fournier, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson
Possessions Played: 114
Net Rating: Minus-16.7
Long-Term Outlook: The offense will get better…but will the defense?
No one should worry about this group’s onset offensive struggles. Barrett and Randle will combine to shoot better than sub-26 percent from downtown, and Kemba can nail more than 30 percent of his twos. This unit may want for a rim-pressure constant all season, but Barrett has more juice to offer in that department.
Surviving on defense could be an issue without a clear solution. The New York Knicks as a whole are holding their own, but the starting five is coughing up 116.7 points per 100 possessions. Though opponents should cool off from distance (42.3 percent), this quintet isn’t structurally built to limit volume at the rim and from short floater range.
New York doesn’t have the personnel to implement substantive changes, either. It can vary up the offensive combinations, but unless a healthy Nerlens Noel or Taj Gibson curries favor over Robinson and is viewed as an upgrade, there’s not much to do. Barrett is the Knicks’ most important perimeter defender, and no one on the bench seems worth plugging into Fournier’s spot.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Russell Westbrook, Kent Bazemore, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, DeAndre Jordan
Possessions Played: 77
Net Rating: Minus-11.6
Long-Term Outlook: The hell if we know.
Evading a bottom-five net rating to open the season comes as a pleasant surprise for this group.
The Los Angeles Lakers offense has looked utterly confused and pretty, pretty awful with its starting five on the floor. This amalgam’s half-court efficiency is right around rock bottom and shooting entirely too many long twos.
Yanking Jordan for another perimeter player and sliding AD to the 5 will be the most popularized hypothetical adjustment. It should be on the table. But the Lakers are hemorrhaging looks at the rim with Davis in the middle. The AD-DJ frontline is at least keeping its head above water on defense.
Something still needs to give. Bringing Westbrook off the bench is the nuclear-yet-not-exactly-blasphemous option. Beyond that, the Lakers can see whether the returns of Trevor Ariza and Kendrick Nunn provide them with more palatable starting-five permutations.
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Most-Used Starting Five: George Hill, Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo
Possessions Played: 56
Net Rating: Minus-10.6
Long-Term Outlook: Rumor has it Jrue Holiday is a monster upgrade over George Hill.
Take the Milwaukee Bucks’ placement with a metric ton of salt—or throw it right in the garbage. They have used four different starting fives through four games. This is not their final iteration.
Jrue Holiday, who has already dealt with right heel and left ankle issues, will take George Hill’s spot in due time. Donte DiVincenzo (left ankle) may wind up displacing Allen. Both this lineup, which has a nowhere-to-go-but-up offensive rating of 87.5, and its placement represent early-season noise at its absolute loudest.
The Bucks have one of the best, most bankable starting fives in the game. They’re just waiting for the opportunity to deploy it.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Stephen Curry, Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney
Possessions Played: 74
Net Rating: Minus-7.2
Long-Term Outlook: They’ll be better. But who gets benched when Klay returns?
These returns ring hollow when the Golden State Warriors are undefeated and when they know Looney-at-the-5 combinations are not what will bring them home. If anything, they should be ecstatic the offense is hanging tough with two non-spacers on the front line. (Yes, yes, yes, congratulations to Mr. Green for being 1-of-2 on threes thus far.)
Golden State’s opening unit has struggled more on the defensive end, where it has forfeited an unhealthy number of corner threes—scoring opportunities opponents are downing at an unsustainably high 57.1 percent clip. This group should get better on the less-glamorous end, even if you don’t feel good about a Curry-Poole backcourt.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Warriors handle Klay Thompson’s pending debut. He will start, even if not right away. Do they just pull Poole? Or might it make more sense to sub out Looney and put Green at the 5 from the jump? And how does a healthy James Wiseman impact this decision, if at all?
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Most-Used Starting Five: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Jae’Sean Tate, Christian Wood, Daniel Theis
Possessions Played: 93
Net Rating: Minus-5.4
Long-Term Outlook: Let it ride.
Leaning so heavily on two youngsters in the backcourt is having the expected effect on the Houston Rockets offense. It is rough.
To its credit, the starting five is drilling over 47 percent of its threes. But the rim pressure is inconstant, and the overall shot selection can tilt too far toward anarchic.
Baking in an actually established ball-handler to roll with KPJ and Green should be up for discussion. We know it won’t be John Wall. It shouldn’t be D.J. Augustin. Eric Gordon-for-Tate is a nice middle ground.
Then again, this group is handling business on defense. Houston’s starting five is allowing just 101.1 points per 100 possessions, a number aided by unlucky opponent shooting at the rim (47.6 percent), but a mark intriguing enough to leave this gaggle untouched—right down to Wood staying at the 4.
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Most-Used Starting Five: D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, Josh Okogie, Jaden McDaniels, Karl-Anthony Towns
Possessions Played: 80
Net Rating: 1.5
Long-Term Outlook: At least one substitution feels necessary.
Raise your hand if you saw a starting five that included Russell, Edwards and Towns posting an offensive rating below 84 to start the season without actually losing the minutes in which it played.
No one should have any of their limbs in the air. There was a path to this group struggling on offense given Okogie’s ceremonial inclusion. (He has yet to make a three.) But this?!? These five are shooting under 55 percent at the rim, barely 20 percent on mid-range jumpers and just over 28 percent from beyond the arc.
Favorable defensive returns keep the opening unit afloat. Chances are they won’t last. Edwards has improved, and both McDaniels and Okogie are real defensive assets. But opponents are converting just 41.7 percent of their point-blank looks and 14.3 percent of their above-the-break triples during these stretches.
Tweaking this lineup to include Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley or Jarred Vanderbilt is worth exploration if and when the defense returns to solid ground. Though, to be fair, Minnesota won’t be so desperate for an offensive jolt if Russell stops shooting so poorly from, er, just about everywhere.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Doug McDermott, Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl
Possessions Played: 92
Net Rating: 3.3
Long-Term Outlook: Steadying on defense; incomplete on offense.
Losing DeMar DeRozan and Patty Mills over the offseason put the San Antonio Spurs at a severe deficit of offensive creation. This year’s squad always needed to cut its teeth on defense. And not surprisingly, the starting five is following that blueprint.
San Antonio’s opening lineup is allowing 103.2 points per 100 possessions—an elite mark that might not prove fleeting. These five won’t force turnovers nearly 25 percent of the time all year, but Murray, White and Johnson are wired to upkeep relentless pressure.
Opponents should shoot at least a hair better on threes. They’re hitting just 31.2 percent of their non-corner triples against San Antonio’s starting unit. But the overarching identity of this quintet looks and feels real. Whether they have a higher ceiling than slightly above net neutral rests on the bandwidth to improve their own half-court scoring.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Tyrese Maxey, Seth Curry, Danny Green, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid
Possessions Played: 130
Net Rating: 3.3
Long-Term Outlook: Intriguing and solid, but probably temporary.
Ben Simmons’ absence has not torpedoed the Philadelphia 76ers’ starting five—on offense, anyway. Plugging in Tyrese Maxey doesn’t do much on paper for their half-court creation or overall playmaking, but this group is piling on 116.9 points per 100 possessions (86th percentile), with a half-court rating that ranks inside the 100th percentile.
Caveats don’t just abound. They exist in avalanches. Seth Curry is playing like he was birthed from a volcano (76.5 percent from deep!), and these five currently combine to shoot over 73 percent at the rim and better than 40 percent from behind the rainbow. That molten-lava hotness will not endure, because it can’t.
Philly has labored through possessions in which the absence of a conventional half-court creator stings. Simmons’ potential return doesn’t change that. He becomes part of the issue in slower situations. But he turns up the defensive peak of a starting unit that has so far unimpressed despite opponents shooting subpar clips at the rim and from three.
Pulling Maxey for Simmons at some point should not be seen as a letdown. The Sixers outpaced opponents by 16.0 points per 100 possessions with last year’s starting five on the court. The real takeaway here: They have options without Simmons and are far from dead in the water so long as Embiid is healthy and drawing double-teams en masse.
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Most-Used Starting Five: LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, Kelly Oubre Jr., Miles Bridges, Mason Plumlee
Possessions Played: 106
Net Rating: 3.6
Long-Term Outlook: Worth keeping, though not above change.
Calls for Terry Rozier to resume starting once he returns from his left ankle injury would resonate if the Charlotte Hornets’ current starting five wasn’t so comfortably in the green. This group isn’t statistically elite at either end but does enough at both to warrant extensive opening-tip looks.
Charlotte can try to make adjustments if it wants to shore up the interior defense, which presently allows a 70.4 percent clip at the basket. But that’s a roster-wide hangup. The Hornets don’t have a big on the docket who can drastically, or even marginally, elevate their rim protection. This fivesome is at least doing a nice job of getting back in transition.
Monitoring the three-point accuracy of the starting unit is the more worthwhile endeavor. This arrangement isn’t stocked with what you’d call lights-out snipers yet connects on 41.9 percent of its above-the-break triples. Inserting a healthy Rozier veers toward necessary if everyone not named Mason begins cooling off from long range.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Monte Morris, Will Barton, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic
Possessions Played: 162
Net Rating: 6.2
Long-Term Outlook: Top-five potential.
It says a lot about the depth of the Denver Nuggets that you’d expect their starting five without Jamal Murray to be a stark net positive. It says even more that, early or not, this placement feels like their floor.
Denver’s opening unit has yet to find its offensive stride. Its overall shooting percentages are mostly OK, but the half-court chemistry needs fine-tuning and a more concrete pecking order beyond plays called for Jokic.
The Nuggets will get there. MPJ is going to sling it at a higher clip. Gordon’s fit will get easier if the latter happens. Jokic and Morris are underachieving from behind the three-point line. Barton is a dream…if he stays healthy.
Will the defense remain top-shelf? That’s a good question. Denver is currently the beneficiary of lackluster opponent three-point shooting (26.5 percent). But on the bright side, it doesn’t profile as an extreme outlier anywhere else.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Lonzo Ball, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Patrick Williams, Nikola Vucevic
Possessions Played: 117
Net Rating: 13.0
Long-Term Outlook: Suspicious, but promising.
Break. Up. The. Chicago. Bulls.
Apparently.
Too many people conflated what the Bulls gave up to get DeRozan with his on-the-court value. He is a ridiculously useful player—a fringe star. The pressure he puts on defenses as a frothy mid-range shooter, pick-and-roll passer and foul-drawer, new freedom-of-movement rules be damned, are already paying dividends.
Chicago’s starting five has actually failed to meet what should be a lofty offensive bar. Its 97.4 points per 100 possessions should make your eyes bleed. It is not hopeless. Vucevic will improve, and the group at large won’t shoot under 46 percent at the basket all season.
The defensive returns are more suspect. The starting five is surrendering just 84.5 points per 100 possessions. Perhaps the Bulls will be better than anticipated on defense. They won’t be this good. Opponents shooting 47.5 percent at the rim and 18.2 percent on threes against the opening lineup are red flags that should catch up with Chicago as its level of competition increases in difficulty.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Dennis Schroder, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Robert Williams III
Possessions Played: 85
Net Rating: 15.3
Long-Term Outlook: Intriguing.
Four games for the Boston Celtics, four different starting fives. What a time to be alive.
This version gets the nod for now. It has logged the most possessions, but at full capacity, the Celtics may yet favor the Al Horford-RWIII frontcourt look.
In the meantime, this group is getting it done at both ends. Boston is not swishing triples with ease during its minutes but has nailed 70.8 percent of its rim attempts. The defense is getting lucky at the basket; opponents are shooting just 52.6 percent at the cup. But they’re also downing 40 percent of their above-the-break threes, a success rate that should tumble over the long haul.
Staying this course to start games will allow the Celtics room for offensive growth. Tatum (33.3 percent), Smart (24.1 percent) and Schroder (31.6 percent) will all torch twine on more threes, and this unit’s rim pressure should promise an above-average number of opportunities at the charity stripe.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Devonte’ Graham, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, Jonas Valanciunas
Possessions Played: 109
Net Rating: 15.5
Long-Term Outlook: Zion’s return will change everything.
This is not the placement you’d expect from a New Orleans Pelicans squad that has bagged only one victory through four games. But this specific lineup works. And it doesn’t loom as a smack-you-in-the-face outlier.
New Orleans’ starting unit should eventually up the ante on offense. It won’t get to the basket a ton but is burying under 31 percent of its threes and committing far too many turnovers. There is low-hanging fruit to be eaten.
Worst-case scenario: Graham, Ingram and NAW arm this ensemble with enough in-between craftiness to prop up a good-to-really-good offense without ever reaching their peaks. And then Zion Williamson (foot) will presumably return. And then the Pelicans will straight cook.
Sustaining the defensive performance will be tougher. The starting five is allowing an ultra-stingy 96.4 points per 100 possessions while letting up a 70 percent clip at the rim. Jones is a shot of defensive adrenaline, but whether it’s the return of Zion or better outside shooting from opponents, this mark seems primed for regression.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Norman Powell, Robert Covington, Jusuf Nurkic
Possessions Played: 62
Net Rating: 16.1
Long-Term Outlook: Immune from the jokes Portland absolutely deserves.
Jokes should continue to fly about the Portland Trail Blazers changing very little at the top of their roster and hoping for different results. But the starting five should be spared from the sarcasm.
Pumping in 111.3 points per 100 possessions while allowing just 95.2 could be telltale of nothing. This group has made just two appearances and is waiting for Powell to return from a left knee injury.
Still, the Blazers’ starting five is not new. It blasted opponents by 13.9 points per 100 possessions last year through a fairly extensive sample size. And while it may be getting a lift from streaky opponent shooting around the rim, Lillard has yet to go kaboom. Unavoidable defensive regression will be met with inevitable offensive progression, otherwise known as Dame Time.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr., OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Precious Achiuwa
Possessions Played: 118
Net Rating: 17.0
Long-Term Outlook: Pascal Siakam’s return will promote sustainability.
Nearly everything about the offensive performance of this Toronto Raptors unit runs counter to the team’s overall performance.
These five have for the most part been an offensive fever dream. They rate in the 86th percentile of half-court efficiency and are shooting 50 percent on two-pointers outside the paint and almost 41 percent on above-the-break threes. It is weird, it doesn’t quite make sense, but it works.
Replacing Achiuwa with Pascal Siakam should improve the big-picture viability of this fivesome. He is an extra ball-handler in the half-court who, theoretically, offsets whatever devolution for which the starting lineup is headed.
Toronto has looked like a seesaw in basketball form for much of the season, going arctic cold on offense only to stage comebacks, some genuine and some seemingly faux. Its roster is straddling a fine line between developmental and immediacy. Siakam should enable the team to skew toward the former on all rotation levels, not just within the starting five.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Spencer Dinwiddie, Bradley Beal, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, Daniel Gafford
Possessions Played: 53
Net Rating: 19.2
Long-Term Outlook: More average than this.
Skeptical? Join the club.
The Washington Wizards starting five has crawled into the top 10 while getting by on an offensive rating of 100. This lineup should be more potent—especially if it’s going with Kuzma over Rui Hachimura at the 4. Sub-28 shooting from deep will prove temporary.
And yet, the Wizards’ defense with this unit on the floor is just as anomalous. They’re allowing 80.8 points per 100 possessions, an untenably low mark that could swing tenfold in the wrong direction over the course of one leaky stretch.
Don’t take anyone’s word for it. The numbers render it undeniable. Opponents are shooting 55.0 percent at the rim, 27.8 percent from mid-range and 16.7 percent on threes versus Washington’s starting lineup. If any of those clips stand the test of a larger sample, the Wizards will be sitting beyond pretty.
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Most-Used Starting Five: De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, Harrison Barnes, Maurice Harkless, Richaun Holmes
Possessions Played: 45
Net Rating: 20.0
Long-Term Outlook: Paint yourself both intrigued and skeptical.
On the one hand, this Sacramento Kings assembly is performing too well at both ends for the results to be deemed more than a small-sample raucous. These five are splashing in 52.6 percent of their threes and 70.0 percent of their attempts at the rim while their opponents are shooting 21.4 percent and 61.0 percent, respectively, from those same areas.
On the other hand, this can’t all be utter hubbub. Right?
Sacramento’s four non-negotiable starters make all the sense in the world together. Fox is a legitimate hub, and Barnes, Haliburton and Holmes are all hardwired to play off him or take on more complicated touches when the possession calls for it. On paper, they just work.
More than that, they worked in practice last year. The Kings outscored opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions with all four on the court. Finding a mainstay fifth wheel is hardly an impossible task. It could even be Harkless. He provides capable stopping power at the 3 and 4, and Sacramento can withstand his sub-30-percent accuracy on threes because the other four are all jacked-up offensive options.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson, PJ Tucker, Bam Adebayo
Possessions Played: 58
Net Rating: 20.7
Long-Term Outlook: This feels about right, if a smidgen inflated.
Surprise, surprise: This fivesome is obliterating opponents at the defensive end.
Rival teams shouldn’t swish only 25 percent of their three-point looks against this group all season, but the Miami Heat’s starting five is supposed to be a hellscape of effort. They are feisty and fairly switchable and play with a mentality designed to get under your skin.
Whether the starting five’s offense can be more than average is a different story. Adebayo and Butler qualify as two non-shooters. Tucker counts as a third if he’s downing just 25 percent of his threes on low volume. Lowry (16.7 percent) and Robinson (32 percent) have plenty of runway to juice their long-range percentages, but this starting five could be one unconscious chucker shy of hovering around the top five all year.
Good thing Miami has the option to futz and fiddle with the currently surface-of-the-sun hot Tyler Herro.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Mo Bamba
Possessions Played: 94
Net Rating: 22.3
Long-Term Outlook: Prepare for demonstrative regression. Probably. I think.
There are, quite literally, no words. There is only shrugging, violently, as you recognize this will be out-of-the-gate nothingness and not a damn thing more.
After four appearances, the Orlando Magic’s starting five has churned out a 111.7 offensive rating to pair with an 89.4 defensive rating. Anyone who says they saw this coming, even to start the year, is lying.
Never mind this lineup doesn’t look like it should be so-so or better on offense. Suggs is shooting 31 percent on twos. This group shouldn’t be so decidedly above average.
Shooting 38.2 percent from long distance as a collective certainly helps. Bamba seems increasingly comfortable getting his jumper off without hesitation. He, Carter and Wagner are all shooting 60 percent or better from two-point range.
Orlando’s defense has been more of a driving force. Opponents are shooting under 58 percent at the rim and sub-31 percent from deep. The latter won’t last, and we have to imagine a starting five featuring two rookies and one sophomore will commit fouls on more than 4.4 percent of their defensive possessions.
If for some reason, by the grace of a magical miracle, regression doesn’t come for this arrangement, a healthier roster might. The Magic can justify leaving Markelle Fultz on the bench when he returns from his torn left ACL, but Jonathan Isaac will no doubt take Bamba’s place upon rejoining the rotation. That doesn’t spell worse times. Isaac helps any defense. But it further speaks to the transience of what this group has done.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Royce O’Neale, Bojan Bogdanovic, Rudy Gobert
Possessions Played: 73
Net Rating: 30.7
Long-Term Outlook: Their status quo is dominance.
Death, taxes and the Utah Jazz’s starting five ranking among the most effective opening units regardless of the metrics used.
To call this group a well-oiled machine would be an understatement. Opponents will hit more than 5.3 percent of their non-corner threes in the long run, but the Jazz’s starting five is not some fly-by-night inclusion. This same lineup outscored opponents by 11.2 points per 100 possessions last season across a monstrous sample.
Right now, the Jazz should merely brace themselves for hotter shooting…from both themselves and their opponents. The starting five has downed just 31.4 percent of its threes and barely 57 percent of its looks at the rim. That includes enough outlier slumps—like Mitchell converting 33.3 percent of his twos—to assume both marks will explode.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, Clint Capela
Possessions Played: 64
Net Rating: 32.2
Long-Term Trajectory: This checks out—and then some.
Injuries are all that stand to get in the way of this starting five’s success. It includes a little to a lot of bit of everything at full strength: shooting, screening, rim-running, rebounding, ball-handling, etc.
Wing defense is a potential weak point, but not a debilitating downfall. Hunter is a stud, and Bogdanovic actually moves. We should all, collectively, be done sleeping on Collins’ decision-making away from the basket.
None of which guarantees a net rating over 30 is sustainable. This Atlanta Hawks quintet is enjoying crappy shooting from their opponents at basically every spot on the floor.
What’s happening on offense, though, isn’t ephemeral. Between Atlanta’s cabal of outside shot-makers and reliable finishers, this unit can keep hanging almost 119 points per 100 possessions on enemy defenses all year.
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Most-Used Starting Five: Darius Garland, Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Possessions Played: 41
Net Rating: 33.8
Long-Term Trajectory: Do not suspend disbelief, but open your mind.
Exception alert! The Cleveland Cavaliers’ starting unit with Ricky Rubio has tallied more possessions across the same number of appearances due to Garland’s two-game absence with a sprained left ankle. We’re defaulting to this one anyway. It is the most recent one used and not a single long-term spot is currently up for debate. (Whereas, in Milwaukee, we’re not quite sure whether Donte DiVincenzo will unseat Grayson Allen.)
Who among us did not wax about the relentless incompetence of the Cleveland Cavaliers when it first became clear they’d be religiously starting Markkanen at the 3, on a front line that already included two should-be centers in Mobley and Allen?
About that…
Cleveland isn’t quite in last-laugh territory. But it’s getting there. Though Garland’s two-game absence shrinks what is a teensy-tiny sample in the first place, the Markkanen-Mobley-Allen frontcourt has held tough on defense.
The Cavs are allowing just 84 points per 100 possessions when all three play together—success owed in no small part to bottom-of-the-barrel opponent shooting from everywhere, but returns that don’t seem brain-bendingly unreal. Mobley has the 360-degree mobility of a positionless wing and pairs it with the size of a center. Allen is an eclipse around the bucket. This duo can swallow souls.
Regression will come. This group isn’t marrying a 120ish offensive rating with an 86ish defensive rating from now until forevermore. But the half-court offense has more options than ever to play through when Garland and Mobley are on the court, and the defense doesn’t need opponents to shoot under 25 percent away from the rim to hover above league average.
Again: Prepare for a plunge. Just don’t forecast total implosion. Not yet. The Cavs haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt, but they deserve the leeway of genuine intrigue.
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Adam Pantozzi/Getty Images
Most-Used Starting Five: Ja Morant, De’Anthony Melton, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Steven Adams
Possessions Played: 99
Net Rating: 46.5
Long-Term Outlook: This group has earned staying power beyond Dillon Brooks’ absence.
Um, whoa.
Dillon Books’ left hand fracture paved the way for the Memphis Grizzlies to start both Bane and Melton without issue. And for the time being, it looks like a decision that should stick past his return.
Make no mistake, the Grizzlies’ current starting five is ripe for regression. It has a 147.5 offensive rating(!) thanks to 48.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc and a 70.6 percent clip at the rim. Its defense cannot hope to hold opponents to 51.9 percent accuracy at the rim, either.
But!
The Grizzlies are not purely surfing a wave of luck with this fivesome on the floor. Opponents have drained over 40 percent of their own threes, and Memphis’ basket pressure has sagged at the other end.
Melton (57.9 percent) and Morant (44.4 percent) are posting outlier clips from deep, but the former is working off a career year from behind the rainbow, and the latter hinted at signs of better outside shooting, both from mid-range and long distance, toward the end of last year. Jackson (42.1 percent) and Bane (34.8 percent) are right where they should be, if not a little lower.
Perhaps I’m scarred from the Grizzlies annihilating expectations over each of the past two years. Doubting them entirely simply doesn’t feel right. Drop-off is inescapable. The starting unit won’t settle in at plus-46.5 points per 100 possessions. But there is a chance this lineup is just plain good—closer to its overall normal right now than not.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Tuesday’s games. Salary information via Basketball Insiders and Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by NBA Math’s Adam Fromal.
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