Realistic Expectations for Every CFB Program with a New Head Coach

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USC coach Lincoln RileyAssociated Press

Whenever a college football team makes a coaching change, the hope of immediate success will naturally follow.

Now, that phrase is relative. Fans of Florida International and New Mexico State do not have the same expectations as Notre Dame, Oklahoma or USC devotees. All of these supporters, though, are wishing for that first-year coach to outperform what happened last season—or perhaps the last several years.

During the 2022 season, 29 programs in the Football Bowl Subdivision will have a new head coach. There’s a time for dreaming about best-case scenarios for each one too.

But on this lovely offseason day, we’re laying out (early!) realistic expectations for the 29 fresh FBS coaches in 2022.

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FIU coach Mike MacIntyreAssociated Press

Each program in the opening tier has struggled lately. That doesn’t mean a resurgent year is impossible, but it is implausible.

Joe Moorhead inherits an Akron program that has posted a 3-27 combined record since 2019. Jerry Kill enters a similar situation at New Mexico State—which has one of the most difficult jobs in the FBS—after 2-10 seasons in both 2019 and 2021.

Florida International went to bowls in three straight years to begin Butch Davis’ tenure from 2017 to 2019, but the Panthers backslid to 1-16 in the last two seasons. Mike MacIntyre takes over in South Florida.

Don Brown has returned to Massachusetts, which he led from 2004 to 2008 and guided to an FCS national runner-up finish in 2006 before the program moved to the FBS in 2012. But the longtime defensive coordinator is facing a rebuild after the Minutemen trudged to two wins in the last 28 games.

And then, there’s UConn. The program opted out of the 2020 campaign and has otherwise lumbered to a 4-32 mark in the last three seasons, only beating one FBS opponent (UMass) along the way. Jim Mora has an enormous challenge ahead.

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Texas Tech coach Joey McGuireJohn E. Moore III/Getty Images

Given the nature of leadership changes—generally a product of subpar performance—it’s no surprise that a majority of first-year FBS coaches are included in Tiers 3 and 4.

Duke’s Mike Elko, Texas Tech’s Joey McGuire and TCU’s Sonny Dykes are taking over Power Five programs. All three are aiming to build up defenses that finished no better than 94th nationally in yards allowed per play in 2021, although Dykes is renowned for his offensive mind.

Clay Helton has a similar outlook at Georgia Southern, which ranked 114th in the defensive category. But the more interesting story around the former USC coach is he’s changing the school’s traditional option offense to a more modern philosophy.

Hawaii’s Timmy Chang and Nevada’s Ken Wilson have experienced an offseason of immense turnover on their respective rosters. Reaching a bowl would be a legitimate victory in year one.

Rounding out the group, Temple’s Stan Drayton and Troy’s Jon Sumrall are at programs with not-so-distance success and recent struggles. While it’s more likely Temple and Troy don’t make the postseason, they’ll probably be on the edge of bowl eligibility.

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Virginia coach Tony ElliottAssociated Press

In a best-case scenario, a few of the programs here may contend for a division title. The realistic expectation is short of that, however.

The lower end includes Colorado State’s Jay Norvell, Louisiana Tech’s Sonny Cumbie, Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry, Washington’s Kalen DeBoer and Washington State’s Jake Dickert. Any of these five programs making a legitimate run at a conference championship game would mean a whole lot has gone perfectly.

Florida’s Billy Napier and LSU’s Brian Kelly are positioned here because of the SEC powers. Georgia and Alabama, respectively, are massive obstacles for Napier and Kelly in year one. Houston is also a strong favorite over Rhett Lashlee and SMU in the AAC.

The biggest wild card is Virginia’s Tony Elliott.

Despite the program’s 11-11 record in the last two seasons, the Cavaliers return standout quarterback Brennan Armstrong in the ever-unpredictable ACC Coastal Division. If any division champ emerges from this tier, it will probably be UVA.

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Miami coach Mario CristobalMark Brown/Getty Images

Long-term optimism at Miami has soared as a product of Mario Cristobal‘s well-deserved reputation as a top recruiter. While the Canes are a definite Coastal Division threat, they are inarguably below Clemson in the overall ACC picture.

Jeff Tedford is back at Fresno State, where he coached from 2017 to 2019 before stepping down for health reasons. Expectations are reasonably high, largely thanks to quarterback Jake Haener. He threw for 4,096 yards and 33 touchdowns last season while propelling the Bulldogs to a 10-3 record.

In all likelihood, Fresno State will either be the Mountain West favorite or a close second to reigning champ Utah State.

Louisiana lost a bunch of production yet remains the division favorite because the Sun Belt West is pretty uninspiring. Program legend Michael Desormeaux, who previously served as the offensive coordinator, could win a conference title in his debut.

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Notre Dame coach Marcus FreemanChristian Petersen/Getty Images

Although dreams of a national championship are merely that, conference titles are certainly in play for USC, Oregon and Oklahoma. Notre Dame can’t win a league crown as an independent, but the Fighting Irish have a comparable outlook to those of the trio.

Lincoln Riley is the marquee name of this group, as he left a well-built Oklahoma program for the bright lights of USC. Riley addressed an underwhelming roster with a heavy emphasis on the transfer portal, bringing in a handful of immediate-impact players—including his former quarterback, Caleb Williams. Utah is the main hurdle for USC.

On the other side of a winnable Pac-12, Dan Lanning is leading Oregon. Cristobal left the program in good shape, but whether the Ducks have a more threatening offense will define Lanning’s first year.

Riley’s departure, meanwhile, opened the door for Brent Venables‘ return to Oklahoma—where he previously served as defensive coordinator. The addition of UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel keeps the Sooners as a prime contender to win the Big 12.

Marcus Freeman, who led Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl after Kelly’s exit to LSU, inherits a program with five straight 10-win seasons. Even as the Irish need a new quarterback, they have a history of recent success and moderately favorable 2022 schedule.