Wade Payne/Associated Press
Tennessee and Mississippi State entered the 2021 SEC Baseball Tournament as the Nos. 2 and 3 seeds, respectively. Both had strong regular seasons and appeared poised to have good showings at Hoover Metropolitan Stadium in Hoover, Ala., this week.
Instead, either the Vols or Bulldogs will go 0-2 and get eliminated on Thursday.
On Wednesday, Tennessee lost to No. 10 Alabama 3-2 in 11 innings, while Mississippi State fell 13-1 to No. 6 Florida. That sets up an elimination game between the Vols and Bulldogs on Thursday.
Among the other games scheduled for Thursday is a highly anticipated matchup between No. 1 Arkansas and No. 4 Vanderbilt, which won the last SEC tourney in 2019. It’s not an elimination game, and it’s possible these teams will meet again this weekend, but it should be an intriguing contest between two of the conference’s top teams.
Here’s a look at Thursday’s full SEC tournament schedule, followed by predictions for how things could unfold.
Thursday Schedule
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Mississippi State, 10:30 a.m. ET, SEC Network
No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 8 Georgia, 2 p.m. ET, SEC Network
No. 6 Florida vs. No. 10 Alabama, 5:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
No. 1 Arkansas vs. No. 4 Vanderbilt, 9 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Bracket Predictions
Let’s start with the Tennessee-Mississippi State matchup. It seemed unlikely that both these teams would be facing elimination in their second game of the SEC tournament, yet that’s how things ended up going.
The Vols and Bulldogs are both heading to the NCAA tournament regardless, but each still has aspirations of winning the conference tourney title before then. But only one will still have a chance after Thursday’s game.
In its loss to Alabama, Tennessee still had 10 hits, with senior infielder Liam Spence and junior catcher Connor Pavolony each driving in a run with a single during a seventh-inning rally. The Vols missed out on some other scoring opportunities, though, as they left 11 runners on base.
But Tennessee may do a better job of driving in baserunners when it faces a Mississippi State pitching staff that gave up 13 runs and 18 hits in a seven-inning loss to Florida on Wednesday. While that was uncharacteristic for the Bulldogs, who ranked third in the SEC with a 3.55 ERA during the regular season, it could be a troubling sign as they get ready to face the Vols.
Because of that, the prediction here is that Tennessee’s bats will really get going and outslug Mississippi State to stay in the tournament while the Bulldogs are eliminated.
In the other elimination game, No. 5 Ole Miss is facing No. 8 Georgia. The Rebels may have dropped their tournament opener, but it was a 5-4 loss to Vanderbilt, which walked it off with a pair of runs in the bottom of the ninth inning.
Ole Miss is a better team than Georgia, and it will bounce back from a heartbreaking loss to stay alive, as it will hope to get another opportunity at Vanderbilt later in the tournament.
No. 6 Florida and No. 10 Alabama each knocked off teams that were seeded higher on Wednesday, and both will still be in the tournament regardless of how Thursday’s game between the two goes.
However, the Gators are swinging hot bats right now, as they had a season-high 18 hits in their win over Mississippi State. Expect that to continue, as Florida will edge Alabama in a high-scoring game.
Thursday’s action will conclude with a matchup between No. 1 Arkansas and No. 4 Vanderbilt that should live up to the hype. It will feature a top-tier pitching matchup between Razorbacks junior left-hander Patrick Wicklander (5-1, 1.89 ERA in 10 starts) and Commodores junior right-hander Kumar Rocker (11-2, 2.45 ERA in 14 starts).
With Wicklander and Rocker dueling, it should be a low-scoring matchup between Arkansas and Vandy. And it could come down to which team can get a clutch hit in the late innings.
This will be the first time the Razorbacks and Commodores will face off this season. And while Arkansas was impressive while earning the No. 1 seed for this tournament, the prediction here is that Vanderbilt will win Thursday and become the team to beat this weekend.
Rocker was the Most Outstanding Player of the 2019 College World Series, so he knows what it takes to lead the Commodores to wins in big games. Also, with Vanderbilt coming off a walk-off win on Wednesday, it should carry that momentum over and generate some offense against Wicklander and Arkansas’ pitching staff.
Don’t be surprised if Vanderbilt wins the SEC tournament, after it further cements its status as a top contender with a win over Arkansas.
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