Shifting global supply chains in India: 5 ‘biggest factors’ impacting ‘made in India’ phones – Times of India

India is addressing bottlenecks to become a credible global supply chain alternative; and mobile phone manufacturing in the country is a success story as per Bank of America. The bank has released a report co-authored by Amish Shah, Managing Director & Head of India Research at Bank of America. As per the report, India’s mobile phone exports have recently experienced a remarkable surge, making global headlines and positioning the country as a credible alternative in the global supply chain for mobile phones and electronics. The exports have grown at an impressive rate, reaching 2.2 times year-on-year and totaling a significant $1 billion per month.
India: The emerging supply chain alternative
India’s mobile phones’ exports (2.2x YoY/$1bn/month) made global headlines recently. Exports mix in local production also expanded from 16% to 25% YoY. “We believe India could be a credible global supply chain alternative for mobile phone/electronics. Success in other sectors is also likely,” said the report. IT listed factors that India’s efforts to cut imports/step-up exports, could improve its macro-outlook, particularly: Cut current account deficit by $112 billion over 5 years; provide stability for rates & INR; Accelerate growth for capex/credit /logistics sector. Besides, it could help diversify supply chains for global brands/contract manufacturing companies.
Electronics: $158 billion market, 1/5th trade deficit; localizing
India consumed $158bn of electronics in FY23 (11% CAGR over FY17-23), supply for which was largely met by imports. At $77 billion, it is India’s second largest import bill and 1/5 of its trade deficit. Hence, in-line with India’s broader goal to cut imports/expand exports, the sector has seen increased policy focus. To push localization/exports, almost half of the $37 billion Production-Linked Incentives (PLI) has been allocated to this sector.
Mobile phones: A success story; India prioritizing scale
Mobile phones are 21.5% of India’s electronics domestic demand pie and are growing faster at 15% CAGR. Mobiles’ PLI scheme, among other policies to fix India’s production cost gap vs peers is already a success: since FY17, mobile phones production/exports are up 3.9x/65x, while imports are down to a third. India’s low production value add at 18% is a key criticism (China/Vietnam: 38%/24%). However, our analysis suggests 70% of mobile phones’ cost (display/memory/chips) is hard to localize near term as it requires large capex & high-end technology. Analysis of China/Vietnam’s journey also shows that focus on higher scale initially, helped them expand value add ratio long term.
India to meet its FY26 targets: 3x production, 5x exports
Given India’s focus on scale, its PLI scheme targeted large players: Samsung and contract manufactures of Apple, which contributed 80% of its $11 billion mobile phones exports in FY23. We believe India can meet its ambitious target: 3x domestic production/5x exports at $126bn/$55bn, by FY26, which could help create a vendor ecosystem overtime. Policy stability, labor productivity and last mile connectivity, are key factors to watch.
Apple may shift >18% iPhone production to India by FY25
Targets under the PLI scheme may drive Apple to shift at least 18% of its global iPhones production to India by FY25 (7% in FY23, negligible pre-PLI). Apple’s share may expand further if larger scale incentivizes its vendors to also expand in India. Apple could also see share gains (4% now) within India’s mobile phone market on improving affordability of locally made iPhones and shift in favour of premium products. We see India contributing >5% of Apple’s global iPhone sales by CY25 & register 21% CAGR over CY22-25.