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Jacob Kupferman/Associated Press
Week 10 of the 2021 NFL season has gotten off to a surprising start. On Thursday night, the Baltimore Ravens were dominated by the Miami Dolphins, much to the chagrin of many a fantasy manager.
The real-world takeaway is that there just doesn’t appear to be a dominant team at the top of the AFC. In fantasy, though, it’s a reminder that even seemingly must-start matchups can end in disappointment.
The Dolphins have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Ravens signal-caller Lamar Jackson finished with 238 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception and 39 rushing yards—for a good, not great 16.42 points.
Tough matchups can be even harder on the fantasy bottom line, and knowing who to start and who to sit can mean the difference between a win and a loss. Here, we’ll dive into five of the toughest matchups/situations of Week 10 and provide our thoughts on how things might play out.
As a quick reminder, the Cincinnati Bengals, Chicago Bears, New York Giants and Houston Texans are on bye this week. All choices are based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring.
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Terrance Williams/Associated Press
The Los Angeles Chargers represent a less-than-ideal matchup for Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. L.A. ranks third in passing yards allowed and has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
It’s worth noting, however, that these numbers are skewed by the fact that opponents generally attack the Chargers on the ground. Opposing teams have logged the most rushing attempts per game and the second-fewest passing attempts per game against L.A.
The Chargers rank a less-impressive 12th in yards per pass attempt allowed.
Cousins, meanwhile, has been a consistent if not always impressive fantasy option all season. He’s thrown just two interceptions on the year and has a touchdown pass in every single game. He’s had multiple touchdowns in five of his eight outings.
The Chargers, meanwhile, seemed to get their offense back on track in Week 9, producing 445 yards and 27 points against the Philadelphia Eagles. This game could feature a shootout between Cousins and Justin Herbert, and I believe the floors are high enough to justify starting both signal-callers.
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Ben VanHouten/Associated Press
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (finger) returned to practice this week, and following several strong practices, he is expected to start.
“He really didn’t hold anything back, and he finished great the last couple of days and he’s ready to go,” head coach Pete Carroll said, per ESPN’s Brady Henderson.
Managers will be quick to throw Wilson back into the starting lineup against the Green Bay Packers. However, they should think twice about doing so unless completely out of viable alternatives.
Wilson has missed multiple games, something he has never done in his NFL career—he had never previously missed a start. There will be some proverbial rust to knock off, and the matchup with Green Bay is a daunting one.
The Packers have fielded an excellent defense all season, despite having several key injuries. They have allowed fewer than 200 passing yards in three of their last four games and have allowed no more than 22 points since the start of October.
Green Bay has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
It’s hard to bet against Wilson, but I’d wait on starting him if there’s a quality streaming option on the roster.
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Jacob Kupferman/Associated Press
Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey enters one of the most unique situations of Week 10. With quarterback Sam Darnold on injured reserve with a shoulder injury, the Panthers reunited with former starter Cam Newton.
Though P.J. Walker is expected to get the start against the Arizona Cardinals, Newton could see some game action.
“Everything is on the table,” offensive coordinator Joe Brady said, per NFL Media’s Kevin Patra.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. With Walker and/or Newton under center, Arizona will be focused on shutting down McCaffrey.
At the same time, though, Brady’s offense is going to run through McCaffrey, who returned in Week 9 after a lengthy absence because of a hamstring injury. McCaffrey caught four passes and had 106 scrimmage yards in his return. He could have even better numbers this week.
While the Cardinals defense is scary on its surface, it has been vulnerable when teams are willing to stick with the run. Arizona ranks fifth in rushing yards allowed but only 31st in yards per carry surrendered.
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Duane Burleson/Associated Press
I’ll start out by saying that if you’re short on RB alternatives, D’Andre Swift isn’t likely to be a total bust. The Detroit Lions running back has a high enough PPR floor that he should provide managers with something in Week 10.
Swift has caught at least five passes in each of his past four games.
That said, I’d sit Swift in lineups that do offer alternatives. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ front seven is becoming a dangerous unit, and ground yards will be hard to come by—which is why Swift should be completely avoided in standard-scoring leagues.
Nick Chubb, one of the league’s toughest runners, had a mere 61 yards against Pittsburgh in Week 8.
The Steelers have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Managers are likely looking at something similar to Swift’s Week 8 outing—in which he finished with five receptions but only 51 scrimmage yards.
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Matt Ludtke/Associated Press
Like Pittsburgh, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a stingy run defense. Tampa ranks second in rushing yards allowed, fifth in yards per attempt allowed and has surrendered the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.
This is why managers should look to avoid Washington Football Team back Antonio Gibson, even though he appears to be recovering from his shin injury.
“Coming off the bye week, I feel like I’m getting back to where I want to be,” Gibson said, per Peter Hailey of NBC Sports Washington.
Teams have had some success attacking Tampa with receivers out of the backfield, though, which is why fellow Washington back J.D. McKissic is worth the start. Back in Week 5, for example, Dolphins back Myles Gaskin caught 10 passes for 74 yards and two touchdowns. Last week, Atlanta Falcons back Cordarrelle Patterson caught six for 126.
McKissic is Washington’s primary receiving back, and he’s logged eight receptions in two of his last three games. His PPR floor is as high as Swift’s, but his overall upside is much, much higher.
*Fantasy scoring and points against from Fantasy Pros.
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