Teams on Upset Alert in Day 1 of the 2022 Men’s NCAA Tournament

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Day 1 of the men’s NCAA tournament is one of the best days of the sports calendar. 

There are 16 games over a 12-hour span, so you’ll never be without basketball to watch. The possibility of upsets makes it even better.

It takes excellent coaching and top-shelf talent to make a surprise run to the Final Four or the national championship game, so 2006 George Mason-esque Cinderellas are rare. But all it takes to survive the first weekend of the tournament is a good matchup or two and some hot shooting.

There are usually several of these stories every year, and that’s likely to be true again in 2022.

With this in mind, here’s a guide to the most likely upsets on Thursday, with “upset” defined as either a lower-seed or betting underdog victory. Teams are ranked from lowest to highest seed, and we’ve listed the moneylines for each matchup courtesy of DraftKings.

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Opponent: No. 11 Michigan (17-14)

Moneyline: Michigan (-145)

We’ll start with the most likely upset of any here.

In some ways, Michigan is only a nominal underdog.

On the other hand, the Wolverines are an 11th seed for a reason. They had a fairly inconsistent season, never winning more than three games in a row and often playing lackluster defense against high-level opponents. They also bowed out in the first round of the Big Ten tournament to Indiana, a team whose First Four placement indicates it just barely qualified for March Madness.

All of that would make Michigan a potential one-and-done team against most teams. However, the Rams are a small team matched up against the Wolverines’ giant rotation.

Dickinson is 7’1″, and fellow starters Moussa Diabate (6’11”) and Caleb Houstan (6’8″) add size as well. Meanwhile, only one player in Colorado State’s rotation is taller than 6’9″.

Both teams shoot efficiently from inside the arc, so a high-scoring affair is likely. Colorado State also has David Roddy, the Mountain West Player of the Year and an absolutely lights-out shooter (57.4/45.5/69.6 splits, the former two of which are impressive for a 6’5″ guard).

But don’t be surprised if the Maize and Blue come out on top.

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Opponent: No. 12 New Mexico State (26-6)

Moneyline: UConn (-275)

These are two underrated teams who figure to play a competitive game. 

UConn has star power and depth, size and skill, and a core ready to challenge Gonzaga if it advances to the Sweet 16. It has four seniors in the rotation, three-level scoring from RJ Cole and Tyrese Martin and a ferocious interior presence from Adama Sanogo and Isaiah Whaley.

The latter skill is a particular strength for the Huskies. They rank second nationwide in blocks per game and sixth in rebounds per game. They’re liable to pummel any team without a solid big man.

New Mexico State isn’t quite as proficient as UConn at rim protection and on the boards, but it’s close. Big men William McNair and Johnny McCants should be able to hang tough with the Huskies in the paint. 

The Aggies also might have the best player on the floor in WAC Player of the Year Teddy Allen. An efficient score-first rotation player at two previous high-major schools—West Virginia and Nebraska—Allen immediately became the sun, moon and stars for the Aggies, recording 16 games with at least 20 points, assuming more responsibility as a passer and adding nuance to his bag of offensive tricks.

If Allen is on point today, UConn could be in trouble.

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Opponent: No. 13 South Dakota State (30-4)

Moneyline: Providence (-135)

By winning percentage, Providence is having its best season in nearly 50 years. The Friars have a well-balanced roster and are battle-tested, having beaten Wisconsin, Texas Tech and UConn.

But they’re running into a buzzsaw in South Dakota State.

The Jackrabbits are no stranger to March Madness, having made the tournament five times in the last 10 seasons. And this is SDSU’s best team ever by winning percentage.

The Jackrabbits both score a lot and score efficiently, ranking second in the nation in both points per game (86.7) and field-goal percentage (52.5). They also lead the country with a Stephen Curry-esque 44.9 shooting percentage from deep.

If you want to quibble with the Summit Conference champion’s strength of schedule, that’s fair. However, SDSU did beat Washington State, scored 88 against Alabama and won all 18 conference games. Given the schedule they were handed, the Jackrabbits had a nearly flawless season.

This will probably be a close, entertaining game. While South Dakota State is a scoring machine, it allowed at least 80 points seven times. If you’re looking for a potential upset with guaranteed pizzazz, this is the one.

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Opponent: No. 13 Vermont (28-5)

Moneylne: Arkansas (-220)

Arkansas is on a roll right now, having won 15 of its past 18 games entering the NCAA tournament. The Razorbacks run opponents up and down the court, play first-class defense and are unafraid to play physically on both sides of the ball. 

However, the Vermont Catamounts are a tough first-round matchup.

Like Arkansas, Vermont is a top-flight team on both sides of the ball. It ranks fifth nationwide in shooting percentage (49.3) and 10th in opponent points per game (60.3). The Catamounts are also well-suited to stand tall against Arkansas’ bruising style of play, rarely committing fouls (13.8 per game, which ranks 346th in the nation).

Arkansas made the Elite Eight last season before losing to Baylor, the eventual national champion. Three of last year’s starters departed, but veteran transfers Stanley Umude and Au’Diese Toney replaced two of them, and Eric Musselman remains an excellent coach. 

However, the Razorbacks had the misfortune of drawing one of the best low-major teams in the country, one that also happens to be a potentially bad matchup.

Don’t be surprised if Vermont wins its first NCAA tournament game in 17 years.