Tennis: Who will finish the year at No. 1?

With his win over Hubert Hurkacz in the semifinals of that event, Djokovic ensured that he would surpass Pete Sampras, who finished as No. 1 for six consecutive years from 1993-98. Close behind are Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Jimmy Connors, each of whom ended the season ranked No. 1 five times.

“It’s always one of the biggest goals, to try to be No. 1 and end the season as No. 1,” Djokovic said last year. “To do it for the record seventh time and surpass my childhood idol and role model, Pete, is incredible. Very grateful, very blessed to be in this position.”

This year, Djokovic has no chance to end the year ranked No. 1. Because of his decision to remain unvaccinated, he was unable to play tournaments in Australia and the United States, including two of the four majors – the Australian Open and U.S. Open. The one major that he did win, Wimbledon, did not award ranking points after Russian and Belarusian players were banned from competing after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Heading into the Paris Masters, Djokovic had played just 10 events all season. He didn’t compete from mid-July to mid- September

Since losing to Nadal in the quarterfinals of the French Open in June, Djokovic has won 17 of his last 18 matches, beating Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas in Astana, Kazakhstan, earlier this month. Still, he is ranked No. 7, his lowest ATP ranking since August 2018 when he was No. 10 following an extended break because of elbow surgery.

So with the sport’s most dominant player faltering in the rankings, the year-end No. 1 ranking is up for grabs. Multiple players have more of the ATP points that determine the top spot than Djokovic, with Carlos Alcaraz, this year’s U.S. Open winner, sitting at No. 1, about 650 points ahead of second-ranked Nadal and about 3,800 ahead of Djokovic.

“The rankings are really skewed this year,” said Pam Shriver, a former top-10 player and now an ESPN commentator. “A lot of people still look at Novak as No. 1. After all, he’s only lost one match since June. His ranking may say No. 7, but that’s all because of Wimbledon. He’s playing like the No. 1 player in the world. It’s not apples to apples like other years.”

Under the normal points system, Djokovic might not even qualify for the ATP Finals in Turin, Italy, this year. Heading into Paris, he was in 10th place in the points race. But under the ATP’s Grand Slam champion rule, any player who wins a major title and is ranked within the top 20 is guaranteed a spot in the year-end championship. (The WTA Tour has no such rule, which is why Djokovic’s fellow Wimbledon champion, Elena Rybakina, did not qualify for the WTA Finals in Fort Worth.)

“Most of the upheaval this year is because of Djokovic,” Patrick McEnroe, a former U.S. Davis Cup captain and now an ESPN commentator said. “He missed two majors and didn’t get points for the one he won. It really affected the rest of the field. You could make the case that if Djokovic runs the table, wins Paris and the ATP Finals, that he deserves to be No. 1.”

The player most likely to end 2022 at No. 1 is Alcaraz. So far he has won five tournaments this year, including ATP Masters 1000s in Miami and Madrid. In Madrid, he beat Nadal, Djokovic and Alexander Zverev in succession. At the U.S. Open, he knocked off Frances Tiafoe in the semifinals and then Casper Ruud for the championship. He then, at 19, became the youngest No. 1 in ATP rankings history.

The issue for Alcaraz is his lack of indoor experience. Entering the Paris Masters, Alcaraz had played just two tournaments, in Astana and Basel, Switzerland, and two Davis Cup matches indoors this season. Last year he lost in the third round in Paris, but went on to win the Next Gen ATP Finals.

“The way this game is supposed to work is that the new guys get better and start beating the old guys,” said Jimmy Arias, once ranked No. 5 and now the director of tennis at the IMG Academy in Florida. “Alcaraz has shown that he’s the guy to replace them because he’s beaten Nadal and Djokovic this year. I don’t want those older guys to just fade away. The new guys won’t get respect without beating them. It’s the natural order of things.”

In the last few weeks of the season, there are five players who could potentially end the year No. 1 – Alcaraz, Nadal, Ruud, Medvedev and Tsitsipas. Ruud reached two major finals this year, finishing second to Nadal at the French Open and to Alcaraz at the U.S. Open. Ruud has also won three lower-level titles and was runner-up to Alcaraz at the Masters 1000 in Miami.

Medvedev, who beat Djokovic in the final of the U.S. Open last year, was runner-up to Nadal at the Australian Open in January. Shortly after, Medvedev, ascended to world No. 1.

But Medvedev was banned from playing Wimbledon and then lost to Nick Kyrgios in the round of 16 at the U.S. Open. He is now ranked No. 4.

Tsitsipas is also within range of No. 1. He has won two ATP titles, in Monte Carlo, Monaco; and Mallorca, Spain, and reached the semifinals at the Australian Open. Though he faltered at the other three majors, Tsistipas has a 14-6 record on indoor hard courts this year and reached the finals in Astana and Stockholm this month.

“This year has been so bizarre,” McEnroe said. “It’s almost hard to legitimize the game and its rankings. The wrinkle in all of this is Ruud, Tsitsipas and Medvedev could all end up mathematically No. 1, but that would be too bad. I don’t think they deserve it.”

Some experts said that Nadal should be crowned year-end No. 1, especially given the way he started the year. He had a 21-match win streak, taking three tournaments, including the Australian Open. He was finally stopped by Taylor Fritz in the Indian Wells final.

Nadal went on to win his 14th French Open, beating Djokovic in the quarterfinals and advancing to the final when Zverev had an ankle injury that would sideline him for the rest of the season. Nadal also reached the semifinals at Wimbledon, but withdrew because of a torn abdominal muscle.

“To me, the person who wins the majors is actually No. 1,” Arias said. “I look at the guy who played less, but won more. And that’s Nadal.”

Regardless of what the computer says in December, this men’s season will be controversial. Had Djokovic been vaccinated and allowed into Australia and the United States, he might well have equaled his 55-7 record of 2021.

“I do have empathy for Djokovic,” McEnroe said. “I don’t agree with his decision, but he suffered the consequences. He paid a high price for sticking to his guns.”

Arias said this would be a year for the record books.

“With Novak not being able to play, and with Wimbledon banning players and then giving no ranking points, I almost feel like this year shouldn’t count,” he added. “But 25 years from now no one is going to remember any of this.”