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Mark Zaleski/Associated Press
The biggest NFL disappointments in 2021 stick out like a bad play call. They’re not easy to see coming and sometimes baffling, though a team may recover given enough time.
The idea applies to both teams and players or coaches after seven weeks. The most notable individual disappointments are high-profile but can reverse the trends as early as next week.
Team-based disappointments are more complex. Underachieving would-be contenders or projected improvements that have failed to match the hype aren’t guaranteed enough time to make things right.
These are the NFL’s biggest disappointments as the season nears the midway point.
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Doug Murray/Associated Press
The Miami Dolphins won 10 games in 2020, the second year of Brian Flores’ bright-looking tenure, securing the franchise’s second squeak above .500 since 2008. Miami has spent in free agency and drafted five first-rounders since 2020, highlighted by selecting top-five passer Tua Tagovailoa.
Yet the Dolphins are 1-6.
Tagovailoa has played in just four games this year, throwing seven touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s had to publicly deal with the idea his franchise may throw in the towel on him in favor of a Deshaun Watson trade, and the Dolphins haven’t done a good job of building the roster around him.
Case in point: sacrificing a 2022 first-rounder to move up in 2021 and select wideout Jaylen Waddle. That selection is currently the second overall pick. And of the five first-round picks in the last two years, most have been disappointing. For example, Miami drafted offensive lineman Austin Jackson to be a starter in 2020, but his 51.3 Pro Football Focus grade this year puts him squarely in the “replaceable” bracket of 59.0 or below.
Regression seemed inevitable for a Dolphins team that overachieved last year, but being in contention for a No. 1 pick they wouldn’t own was unthinkable. Hanging with the New York Jets in the cellar instead of Buffalo at the top of the AFC East should have everyone on the hot seat.
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Matt Durisko/Associated Press
Seeing the Seattle Seahawks in dead last in the NFC West after seven weeks might be one of the most surprising developments in recent years.
They’ve won nine or more games each year dating back to 2012—and the instance of nine wins happened once. Good things happen when teams have an elite passer like Russell Wilson, and it would take catastrophic roster management and/or coaching to derail that success.
That is what makes the Seahawks so disappointing.
Wilson was his usual elite self in five games before injuring his right middle finger, completing 72 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns against one interception. But Seattle went just 2-3, picking up wins over sub-.500 teams San Francisco and Indianapolis.
The disaster around Wilson, including an offensive line that has allowed 23 sacks and a defense tied for 22nd in pressure rate, is why experts like ESPN’s Mina Kimes have suggested head coach Pete Carroll should be on the hot seat ahead of a possible rebuild. Carroll told reporters Monday after Seattle lost to the New Orleans Saints, “I’ve been here a long time, and if we didn’t have Russell, I probably wouldn’t have been here a long time.”
At 2-5, the Seahawks aren’t catching 7-0 Arizona or 6-1 Los Angeles in the division, and Wilson is out through at least Week 10.
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Mark Zaleski/Associated Press
Unlike Wilson in Seattle, much of the blame for the disaster start for the Kansas City Chiefs can go on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes.
Yes, the offensive line has been poor despite big additions like Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown. Teams blitz Mahomes on 13 percent of his dropbacks yet pressure him on 35 percent, per ESPN’s Adam Teicher. His targets have dropped 13 passes. The defense is bad too, giving up 27 points in six of seven showings.
But Mahomes has thrown nine interceptions in seven games. He threw six in 15 games last year and five picks in 14 the year before that. He’s going off script too much, seeking high-risk big plays instead of taking what’s available. Some of that is because of the offensive line, but some of it is regression after he got lucky with turnovers for so many years.
The result is a 3-4 record, which nobody would have projected for a dominant team that has made two straight Super Bowls and rebuilt the offensive line, its biggest problem. The Chiefs have a minus-15 point differential, the worst mark in an AFC West wherein the Raiders have five wins and the Chargers have four—and they already lost to the Chargers.
A talent like Mahomes and a mind like head coach Andy Reid always have a chance to dig out of a hole and mask other issues. The offensive line should improve as four new starters build chemistry, but the same can’t be said for the defense. Regardless, the bumbling start has put the playoffs in jeopardy.
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Ron Schwane/Associated Press
The Cleveland Browns seemed to finally turn the corner last year. They won 11 games and notched the franchise’s first playoff win since 1994 in only its second postseason berth since being inactive from 1996 to 1998.
But the longer 2021 drags on, the worse things look for this edition of the Browns.
Cleveland’s four wins this season have come against sub-.500 squads and one .500 team (Minnesota) with losses to potential contenders Kansas City, the Los Angeles Chargers and Arizona.
Baker Mayfield, who missed the Week 7 win against Denver with numerous left shoulder injuries, went 3-3 while completing 67.1 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and three interceptions. He might be back as soon as Week 8 but is trying to play through ailments that may require offseason surgery.
Meanwhile, Baltimore and Cincinnati have put up 5-2 records in the deep AFC North. The Browns have to hope to avoid a tailspin while staring down all six divisional games on the schedule, plus dates with Green Bay and Las Vegas.
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Jed Jacobsohn/Associated Press
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has a tremendous reputation in NFL circles thanks to his offensive acumen and has a 2019 trip to the Super Bowl as evidence.
But with his 49ers sitting at 2-4, Shanahan’s record over four-plus years in San Francisco is 31-39 with one winning season.
This year’s early collapse features an 0-2 mark in the NFC West with losses to Arizona and Seattle, the latter the cellar-dweller in the division. San Francisco’s victories have come over winless Detroit and two-win Philadelphia.
If one head coach seemed likely to manage the 49ers’ veteran quarterback vs. first-round passer conundrum, it figured to be Shanahan. Instead, he doubled down on Jimmy Garoppolo over No. 3 pick Trey Lance, not getting out of an escapable contract, and the veteran has thrown six scores and four picks in five games.
Lance has lost out on first-team reps in practice and in games. When he has played, Shanahan’s offense hasn’t made him look great, as the rookie has completed 25 of 48 attempts in four appearances.
Shanahan has time to correct course with Lance, but the 49ers haven’t looked competitive enough to contend, and the organization needs to develop him, as it won’t be long before it’s confronted with his fifth-year option or having to start over again.
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Jason Behnken/Associated Press
Matt Nagy stormed onto the scene with the Chicago Bears in 2018, winning 12 games, making the playoffs and earning Coach of the Year honors.
He’s been 8-8 twice since, and the Bears are 3-4 this season with three losses of 20-plus points.
Nagy does have two impressive wins, as the Bears have bested five-win Las Vegas and Cincinnati teams. But the other side of the coin is a 38-3 blowout at the hands of Tampa Bay in Week 7, which suggested the Bears can’t compete with elite teams.
But this is mostly about Nagy’s handling of the Andy Dalton-Justin Fields dynamic. Like with Shanahan, it’s a temperature-booster for the hot seat if an offense-minded coach stumbles when working with a veteran and a first-round passer.
Nagy entered the year with Dalton but was forced to start Fields in Week 3 after Dalton suffered a knee injury. He game-planned a nine-sack, six-completion performance for Fields in a 26-6 loss to Cleveland. Nagy named Fields the permanent starter after Week 4, but he hasn’t been working in things like rollouts and moving pockets to best use Fields’ skill set, and he has limited play-action passes despite evidence that Fields does well with them, as noted by NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah.
A year ago, Nagy seemed to save his job by yanking the Bears out of a six-game skid to finish 8-8 and back into the playoffs. He seems to be feeling the heat because he’s given up play-calling, but it’s hard to imagine he pulls off another turnaround with four NFC North games left, plus dates against heavyweights like Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Arizona.
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