The NFL Has Never Valued WRs More, Which Could Be the Story of the 2022 Draft

Paul Vernon/Associated Press

It’s no secret that standout NFL wide receivers are in higher demand than ever before. But the free-agent market in recent years has driven that home. 

In 2011, only two of the NFL’s 40 highest-paid players were wide receivers (Larry Fitzgerald and Vincent Jackson), according to Spotrac. That number remained at or below the handful range until very recently, when it exploded from three in 2017 to eight in 2020 to 10 this offseason. 

It’s hard to imagine quarterbacks will ever be knocked from the top of the NFL’s financial positional totem pole, but receivers have gone from a 5 percent share of the top 40 to a 25 percent share in just over a decade. That goes to show how much of an emphasis teams are placing on the guys who catch most of the passes from those filthy rich quarterbacks.

Signal-callers Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins cashed in this offseason, but so did pass-catchers Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, D.J. Moore, Chris Godwin and Mike Williams, all of whom now possess average annual salaries of at least $20 million. 

Mark Brown/Getty Images

That trend appears to be trickling down to the draft, too. Eleven wide receivers have gone off the board in the first round of the last two drafts combined, compared to only four in 2018 and 2019 combined.

Those samples are small and those recent classes were receiver-rich, but regardless, that jump is statistically significant. Teams selected three or fewer receivers with first-round picks in six of the 10 drafts that preceded the recent rise, and the 2008 draft featured zero receivers in the first round.

The uptick in eye-popping receiver paydays isn’t a response to perceived failures from rookie classes, either. There are of course cases that didn’t pan out from recent drafts like like N’Keal Harry, John Ross, Jalen Reagor and Kadarius Toney, but recent early success stories like Moore, Marquise Brown, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and Ja’Marr Chase easily compensate for the group above.

This year’s receiver class appears likely to extend the trend. 

A mock draft earlier this month from the B/R NFL Scouting Department predicted that a record-tying seven wide receivers will be selected in the first round, with three more coming off the board in the top 40. And 10 of the top 43 spots on B/R’s final big board belonged to wideouts. Meanwhile, this rookie quarterback class is not getting close to as much first-round love.

Teams appear to be realizing that it’s often not enough to land a big fish under center if you can’t give him difference-makers in the receiving corps. That mindset already existed to some extent, and a similar line of thinking previously paved the way for left tackles to become premium commodities in the draft and in free agency. But now that pass rushes are more dynamic and quarterbacks have been sheltered by the evolving rulebook, that quarterback-receiver dynamic has moved to the forefront. 

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

No receiver is likely to go off the board in the top few picks on Thursday night, but this wideout class still got plenty of predraft love. That’s partly because of the dynamics alluded to above, but also because there does again appear to be plenty of depth and overall talent among the group:

• Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson has the playmaking ability to go in the top 10. The rebuilding Atlanta Falcons make a lot of sense at No. 8 overall because the sky’s the limit for him, but he could need some time.
• USC’s Drake London has the measurables and ceiling required to join Wilson in that range. He could also land with Atlanta but the New York Jets (No. 10), Houston Texans (No. 13) and Philadelphia Eagles (No. 15) are also logical potential landing spots in the top half of Round 1. 
• Another Buckeye, Chris Olave, has the polish and versatility to climb into the top 12 if some team jumps up for a wideout who’s ready to make an immediate impact. The Los Angeles Chargers (No. 17), New Orleans Saints (Nos. 16 or 19), Green Bay Packers (Nos. 22 and 28) and Dallas Cowboys (No. 24) come to mind. 
• The B/R Scouting Department called Alabama product Jameson Williams “the most explosive weapon in the entire class.” He could also sneak into the top 10 or 12 even though he’s recovering from an ACL injury because he boasts so much upside. It wouldn’t be shocking if the Falcons or Jets took Williams in the top 10, but it’s hard to imagine him getting past Green Bay at No. 22.

There doesn’t appear to be much of a gap between those four and a “second tier” that includes:

• Do-everything Penn State weapon Jahan Dotson, who scored 12 receiving touchdowns in the Big Ten last season.
• Big-bodied Arkansas product Treylon Burks, who scored 12 touchdowns in the SEC in 2021.
• Towering former North Dakota State wideout Christian Watson, who has the measurables and remains an intriguing enigma from the Missouri Valley Football Conference. 
• Prototypical vertical outside threat George Pickens, who went over 700 yards with eight touchdowns as a freshman at Georgia back in 2019. 
• Former Clemson standout Justyn Ross, who has a similar makeup and resume to Pickens. He has a high ceiling, but a lot will depend on whether he can hold up medically in the NFL (there are concerns about his neck and foot).
• Versatile Boise State pass-catcher Khalil Shakir, who went over 1,000 yards as a senior in 2021.
• Do-everything Cincinnati alum Alec Pierce, who scored eight touchdowns as a senior last season.

But we’ve also seen Day 2 or even Day 3 receivers excel early as of late.

From Day 3 alone, fourth-rounders Amon-Ra St. Brown and Gabriel Davis are shining for the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills, respectively, while Darnell Mooney and Hunter Renfrow are doing the same as recent fifth-rounders for the Chicago Bears and Las Vegas Raiders, respectively. Meanwhile, the likes of Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Diontae Johnson, Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin were all Day 2 picks in recent years.

A few who could follow in similar footsteps in 2022: 

• South Alabama product Jalen Tolbert, who put up over 2,500 yards and scored 16 touchdowns in his last two college seasons and has tantalizing height, length and range.
• Four-year Baylor contributor Tyquan Thornton, who has an ideal height/speed combination and scored 10 touchdowns in the Big 12 as a senior in 2021. 
• Consistent Purdue pass-catcher David Bell, who has the size and physicality to ball in the pros and went over 1,200 yards in the Big Ten last year.
• Twitchy outside former Coastal Carolina star Jaivon Heiligh, who caught more than 130 passes for more than 2,100 yards and 17 total touchdowns during his last two seasons in college.

The wide receiver lovefest is full swing, and that might be more evident than ever during the 2022 draft.