The sports world received a hint last week of a changing dynamic

The NBA might blunder into a humbling political crisis based on a single tweet, and rich contracts might vanish into thin air overnight, but China, the thinking went, was a potential gold mine. And for that reason leagues, teams, governing bodies and athletes contorted themselves for any chance to tap into it. But recent events may have changed that thinking for good, and raised a new question: Is doing business in China still worth it?

The sports world received a hint last week of a changing dynamic when the Women’s Tennis Association — one of many organisations that have worked aggressively over the past decade to establish a foothold in the Chinese market — threatened to stop doing business there altogether if the government failed to confirm the safety of Peng Shuai. Peng, a top women’s tennis player once hailed by state media as “our Chinese princess,” disappeared from public life recently after accusing a prominent former government official of sexual assault.

The WTA’s threat was remarkable not only for its reasoning, but for its rarity. But as Chinese President Xi Jinping governs through an increasingly authoritarian approach, and as China’s record on human rights has made the country, and those who do business there, a growing target for a chorus of critics and activists, sports leagues and organisations may soon be forced to reevaluate their long-standing assumptions. Mark Dreyer, a sports analyst for China Sports Insider, based in Beijing, said the WTA’s standoff with China represented an escalation in the “them or us” mentality that appeared to be forming between China and its Western rivals.

The threat from the WTA, then, could serve as a sign of showdowns to come, in which case, Dreyer said, China could lose out. “Frankly, China is a big market, but the rest of the world is still bigger,” he said. “And if people have to choose, they’re not going to choose China.”

To some experts, then, the WTA’s extraordinary decision to confront China head-on might actually signal a turning point, rather than an aberration. Simon Chadwick, a professor of international sports business at Emlyon Business School in Lyon, France, said the WTA’s dispute with China reflected the “red line” growing between the country and many of its Western counterparts, with the sides seeming more entrenched in diverging sociopolitical ideologies. “I think we are rapidly heading toward the kind of terrain where organizations, businesses and sponsors will be forced to choose one side or another,” Chadwick said.