Charlie Riedel/Associated Press
NFL free agency is the most hectic period of the football calendar thanks to the breakneck pace of signings and trades. The top available free agents often fly off the board within the first week after taking meetings with suitors who are flushed with cash. But there’s always a surprising name or two still looking for a big contract after the first wave of deals.
The most surprising name still available from the 2022 NFL free agency class is former Kansas City Chiefs defensive back Tyrann Mathieu. The Honey Badger had a successful three seasons with the Chiefs, winning a Super Bowl and earning two All-Pro nods. And yet, turning 30 in May, Mathieu is the biggest boom-or-bust free agent still left on the market.
On the surface level, Mathieu is a great fit for the majority of teams in the league. Known as a ferocious leader with high football intelligence who can easily move between each secondary position, Mathieu’s versatility reaches beyond the field on Sundays. The 5’9″, 190-pounder hasn’t seen the interest from contenders that was likely expected, though.
The Chiefs happily opted for a younger, cheaper, and less volatile personality in Justin Reid instead of offering Mathieu a deal to return. A deeper dive into the numbers may show the Chiefs see the potential of Mathieu’s best days being behind him. We’ll look at the pros and cons of Mathieu’s recent play and where he fits best amongst expected interested teams.
Slot Wizard
Versatility is easily the place where Mathieu proved most valuable for Kansas City. His snap distribution throughout the secondary was balanced between free safety, strong safety, slot corner, and inside linebacker. According to Pro Football Focus, 52 percent of his snaps were between the safety spots, 21 percent at slot corner, and 20 percent were at inside linebacker.
His most effective role of all was easily in the slot, which is promising for his ability to stay effective as he ages. He allowed the second-lowest quarterback rating (53.3) among all safeties with at least 99 coverage snaps, with just 45 pass yards charged to him by PFF.
Being best in the slot is problematic for his value since the position hasn’t been prioritized by front offices. All three of his interceptions came from the slot in 2021, and his limited size makes him less of a target against smaller, shifty receivers. As his speed decreases into his 30s, defensive coordinators will need to move Mathieu around less to get the most out of him.
For Indianapolis and Baltimore, this isn’t as valuable of a skill set due to their previous investments into the secondary. The Chargers, Jets, and Bears would immediately benefit in comparison.
Ballhawk Potential
The stats don’t lie when it comes to Mathieu’s upside on a defense. He totaled 171 solo tackles, 13 interceptions, and 27 pass deflections in three seasons with the Chiefs. Only Quandre Diggs and Justin Simmons have had as many or more among all safeties.
Mathieu is sure to produce the occasional turnover but he’s trending the wrong direction despite spending so much time as a roaming defender and not in man assignments. 2021 was the first time since 2016 he had so few pass deflections. His first two seasons in Kansas City were much more impactful overall with 10 total interceptions and 21 pass deflections.
His ability to be everywhere for the defense seemingly at once is what any team hopes Mathieu will bring to the table and would justify a top-of-the-market deal. The Chiefs’ defense took a step backwards in 2021 as a whole, and was not as opportunistic in general compared to previous years. A new situation can cater to Mathieu’s feel for passing windows if there’s more talent around him and better pass-rushers.
Mathieu won’t need to produce more than a few interceptions per year to justify his signing, but his ball production with deflections and impact in the passing game must be excellent.
Performance Volatility
For all of the positive and rare impact that Mathieu can bring, he can also disappear for large stretches of play. He’s dependent on solid surrounding casts, unless he’s in the slot. Some years he had elite production and other years he was a good but not special performer.
On throws into his coverage, Mathieu has had two seasons in his career where he allowed a passer rating over 110.0, two below 71.0, and five in-between 77.0 and 94.0.
Back in 2019, Mathieu was an enforcer in coverage who gave up only 5.4 yards per target, which is incredibly good (the position average usually hovers around 8.0). The very next year, his yards-per-target average ballooned to a ghastly 9.6. It dropped back down to 7.8 in 2021.
When you toss a lion’s share of cash at a player, you want to feel certain that you know exactly what you’re getting from him. Mathieu is an unpredictable roller-coaster ride – and as he now enters his age-30 season, that roller-coaster is more likely to continue barreling down than it is to turn back up.
Rebuilding defenses like the Jets can’t stomach the risk even if they’re flush with cap space. Miami and the rest of the contenders can, though, because their surrounding parts allow Mathieu to be a complimentary piece in the worst-case situation.
Run Defense
In the past four years, Mathieu’s Pro Football Focus run-defense grade has gone as high as 85.5 (2018) and as low 47.4 (2021) with a 59.5 (2019) and a 70.3 (2020) sandwiched between them. His tackling efficiency finished 33rd out of 84 ranked safeties. But he also made just two run-stops all season despite playing so close to the line of scrimmage, ranking 85th for safeties.
His size and penchant for going for a forced fumble instead of wrapping up is problematic since he’s forced just four fumbles in his career. Expectations must be realistic for Mathieu’s impact in the run game. He’s merely a presence who is decent but not at all reliably good. Even if he’s pigeonholed as a slot corner or coverage safety, there’s a likelihood he’ll be targeted by offenses as a possible weak link.
Best Fits
Gambling on an aging, small safety rarely works out, but Mathieu’s pedigree is uncommon. He’ll overcome most limitations with positioning and his work ethic, but may also fade in coming years. It’s just as likely we’ve seen the last of his impactful days if he picks the wrong next destination as it is that he returns to the Pro Bowl team.
Factoring in cap space, defensive scheme, and roster readiness, Mathieu’s best fits are the Broncos, Chargers, Eagles, and Dolphins. The Colts also make sense if they want to become less reliant on two-high safety looks and will unleash Mathieu’s ability to roam deep.
The Honey Badger should land on a team soon, and he has the chance to change the face of a defense for the third time in his career. It’ll take the right blend of scheme and Mathieu’s own realization of his game to make it happen, though.
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