Alexander Hernandez vs. Renato Moicano odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, Canada’s most trusted sportsbook.
The UFC’s middleweight division will take over the spotlight at UFC 271 on Saturday from inside Houston’s Toyota Center. Israel Adesanya will be defending the UFC middleweight title against Robert Whittaker. Outside of that fight, the lightweight division also will look to make its presence felt.
Sporting News, with the help of Sports Interaction, takes a closer look at a lightweight bout that, on paper, has a chance to “wow” the crowd in Texas. That bout is Alexander Hernandez vs. Renato Moicano.
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Fighter overview
Hernandez made his MMA debut in 2012. He joined the UFC in a last-minute affair in 2018, knocking out Beneil Dariush at UFC 222. “The Great” is 5-3 with the UFC and 2-2 in his past four fights. In October, Hernandez beat Mike Breeden via knockout.
This fight means a lot to Hernandez, who has been visibly upset that he was initially competing on the Fight Pass prelims at UFC 271.
“Man, I’m fired the f—k up because of the amount of disrespect that the UFC is showing me on this card,” Hernandez said to MMA Fighting via the “We Got Next” podcast. “We have to wait four months and then I’m on the early f—king prelims. I mean, that incites such a rage in me so I’m coming to make a statement. I’m so fired up about that. I’m so pissed off and I’m so motivated, so I’m really eager to make a statement.”
The fight has since been elevated to the main card after bouts being moved around or nixed.
Moicano started his career with Jungle Fight in Brazil. An interim Jungle Fight featherweight champion, Moicano joined the UFC in 2014. He has competed in the featherweight and lightweight divisions for the company. Moicano faced some tough competition in his early UFC run. He has fought the likes of Jeremy Stephens, Brian Ortega, Calvin Kattar, Cub Swanson, Jose Aldo and Chan Sung Jung.
Moicano’s last fight was a submission win in June over Jai Herbert. He is 7-4 with the promotion. Moicano is pretty confident in the outcome of this fight and is ready to use all aspects of his fight game to take out Hernandez.
“It can go both ways. Seeing Hernandez’s fights against Moises, they are both good grapplers but stood the entire three rounds,” Moicano told BJPenn.com. “Sometimes I try and take guys down, sometimes I stay standing and strike. … It’s all about winning, it doesn’t matter if I finish or go to a decision. I just need to be sharp and do what I need to do to get the win.”
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How the fight is leaning
Per Sports Interaction, Hernandez is the +125 underdog. That means a $44.45 wager will result in a $100 profit. Moicano is the -165 favorite, meaning a $62.27 wager can result in a $100 payout. By betting $100 on Moicano, you can win $160.
Because of the explosive nature of both men, the fight going under 2 1/2 rounds is the -140 favorite, while it going the distance is the +110 underdog. At -140, a $58.34 wager will result in a $100 profit. At +110, a $47.62 wager results in a $100 profit.
As far as the method of victory is concerned, Moicano via decision is +230 via the FanDuel Sportsbook. Hernandez winning by some form of knockout is +270.
Who has the edge?
Moicano looks to have an advantage over Hernandez. He has landed 5.12 significant strikes per minute and has a 47 percent strike accuracy. Hernandez has landed 3.79 strikes per minute and had a 36 percent accuracy rate. They are close when talking about strike defense (65 percent for Moicano compared with 59 percent for Hernandez).
One thing to keep an eye on is the power of both. Moicano has zero wins via knockout, while Hernandez has six. In their past four fights, Hernandez has landed 133 shots. Moicano has landed 66. Hernandez has been known to strike at any time. Being patient, especially since a loss against Donald Cerrone in 2019, has been something he’s worked on.
On the ground, Hernandez has a 1.57 average takedown rate per 15 minutes. Moicano has a 1.96 rate along with a 60 percent takedown accuracy rate (Hernandez is at 35 percent). Hernandez’s defense when it comes to takedowns is at 62 percent, while Moicano’s is at 78 percent.
What he lacks in knockout wins, Moicano has in submissions with eight. Hernandez has two submission wins but last won that way in 2016 with RFA.
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The idea that Hernandez is the true underdog in this fight doesn’t appear to be fair, as both have an advantage over the other. What Moicano does bring to the table is experience and grit. Hernandez has something to prove, especially after his most recent comments. On the bright stage of the main card now, the pressure is on.
If Moicano can get Hernandez to the floor, it could be a rough night for the latter. However, it appears that a motivated Hernandez can get the job done as long as he is patient. If he isn’t trigger-happy, Hernandez can make UFC 271 a night to remember.
Sporting News prediction: Hernandez via KO
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