UFC 272: Jorge Masvidal vs. Colby Covington: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown

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Colby Covington (16-3) and Jorge Masvidal (35-15) will finally settle their differences in the main event of UFC 272 this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

The pair were once close friends and training partners at American Top Team in South Florida. They even shared an apartment together for a period. Unfortunately, as they were simultaneously ascending to the top of the UFC welterweight division, their relationship began to decay. Today, they’re among the most heated rivals in all of MMA.

Everyone loves a good grudge match, but in this case, the heat between Covington and Masvidal is distracting from what is a very interesting matchup on paper. The pair have established themselves among the best welterweights on the planet, with starkly differing but undeniably effective skill sets. They have also suffered two losses apiece to reigning welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, meaning they’re both in dire need of a win.

There will not be a belt on the line when they collide in the UFC 272 main event, but make no mistake: The stakes are massive. 

Keep scrolling to see how these friends-turned-enemies match up.   

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Covington is an incredible fighter with a well-rounded skill set, but his striking is the weakest weapon in his arsenal. The trash-talking contender has won just two of his fights via strikes, and neither was a clean KO.

Masvidal, meanwhile, is a striker through and through. The Cuban American, who used to fight bare-knuckle on the same Miami backyard circuit that gave us Kimbo Slice, has won 16 fights by knockout or TKO, including destructive wins over the likes of Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, Darren Till, Ben Askren and Nate Diaz. He’s primarily known for his boxing, but he’s flaunted a vicious kicking game too—most notably in the win over Diaz.

While Covington is not known for his stand-up, he is known for throwing a high volume of strikes—mainly to overwhelm and exhaust his foes rather than actually knock them out. Interestingly, however, Masvidal lands more strikes per minute than Covington, clocking in at 4.22 compared to his rival’s 4.14. He also has the higher striking accuracy rate, landing at an impressive 48 percent compared to his rival’s 38.

Throw in the fact that Masvidal also avoids 65 percent of strikes thrown at him, while Covington avoids just 56, and there’s no two ways about it: If Masvidal can keep this one standing, Covington could be in big trouble.

Edge: Masvidal

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As we covered above, Masvidal should be able to light Covington up if he can keep this fight standing. Doing so, however, won’t be easy. Having spent so much time training with his opponent, he probably knows this. 

Covington is not only one of the most effective wrestlers in the welterweight division but also one of the most effective wrestlers in MMA period. He got his start in high school and college, ultimately earning All-American honors out of Oregon State University. He’s been no less impressive in the UFC.

He completes a whopping 4.10 takedowns per 15 minutes and ranks 10th all-time for takedowns completed in the Octagon—tied with former UFC lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov and Johny Hendricks at 61.

Interestingly, Masvidal has a better takedown success rate than Covington—59 percent to 47—but we can attribute that to the fact that he’s much choosier with his attempts, whereas Covington is almost constantly looking to drag his foes to the mat.

Masvidal also has the better takedown defense rate, stopping 76 percent compared to Covington’s 72. But that’s a thin margin, and again, it most likely comes down to context: Few people have any interest in trying to take Covington down, whereas it’s the surest way to deprive Masvidal of his best weapons.     

Masvidal may have Covington beat on the feet, but when it comes to wrestling, he’s in over his head.

Edge: Covington

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Neither Masvidal nor Covington is known for his submissions. However, the latter seemingly has a slight edge in this department.

Covington has won four fights by submission, whereas Masvidal has won just two fights in this fashion. This is made all the more impressive considering Masvidal has almost three times as many fights as Covington. The fact that Masvidal attempts slightly more submissions per fight—0.35 compared to Covington’s 0.13—adds insult to injury. 

Of course, we’d be remiss not to tip our hat to Masvidal’s jaw-dropping submission defense. The fan-favorite veteran has only been submitted twice in 50 professional fights. That’s despite battles with the likes of Demian Maia, Nate Diaz, Donald Cerrone and Benson Henderson.

It’s unlikely that jiu-jitsu is Plan A for either of these guys in this matchup, but if it comes to that, it’s going to be interesting to see who comes out on top. We’re leaning toward Covington, but Masvidal is no slouch on the mat—even if he doesn’t show us his skills there often.

Edge: Covington

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Covington’s X-Factor: Durability 

There are a lot of variables in this matchup. One that bears mentioning is Covington’s durability. He has never been knocked out before. In fact, he’s typically fought like he’s made of concrete. But after his two gruelling losses to welterweight champion Kamaru Usman—throughout which he absorbed just shy of 300 strikes—it’s impossible not to wonder if this might be the fight in which the cracks begin to show. Against a powerful and opportunistic striker like Masvidal, he better hope not. 

Masvidal’s X-Factor: Durability

This might read like a cop-out, but durability is even more of a concern for Masvidal. In his last fight, he suffered a vicious, one-punch knockout loss to Usman. It was only the second time he’s been stopped by strikes, but he’s now 37 years old and 50 fights into his MMA career. That doesn’t count his unsanctioned bare-knuckle fights, his boxing and kickboxing matches and his countless sparring rounds. The intention here isn’t to suggest Masvidal’s chin is shot, but if there was ever a time to worry that’s the case, it’s now—even against a guy like Covington, who thus far hasn’t shown much in the way of stopping power.

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Masvidal is the kind of fighter who can never be counted out, no matter how much of a stylistic disadvantage he appears to be at ahead of time—just ask Ben Askren. That being said, you can’t depend on him to complete that kind of Hail Mary every time.

The far more likely outcome is that Masvidal will receive the same brutal treatment as most of Covington’s previous opponents—treatment he might well have experienced in the gym years ago. That means spending great swathes of the fight being smushed into the cage, taken down and buried under a suffocating avalanche of ground strikes. Unless his chin is shot, Masvidal will probably benefit from the fact that Covington has never had much pop in his punches, but it’s still going to be a miserable night at the office.   

Prediction: Covington by unanimous decision