UFC Fight Night 204: Volkov vs. Aspinall Odds, Schedule, Predictions

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Tom Aspinall’s hype will be pitted against Alexander Volkov’s experience in a fun heavyweight main event set to go down at UFC Fight Night 204 at the O2 Arena in London, England. 

Aspinall has become England’s great heavyweight hope since joining the UFC in July 2020. He’s off to a scorching start with a 4-0 record that includes four finishes, including a submission win over Andrei Arlovski. 

In Volkov, he gets a new test. The 33-year-old is a perfect test for where Aspinall is in his career right now. He’s a proven UFC veteran who has only lost to legitimate contenders in Ciryl Gane, Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes over the last five years. 

In the co-main, there’s a similar prospect vs. veteran pairing as Arnold Allen looks to prove himself against Dan Hooker in a featherweight contest. 

Here’s a look at the whole card with previews and predictions for the biggest fights. 

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Main Card (ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET)

• Alexander Volkov (+100) vs. Tom Aspinall (-120)
• Arnold Allen (-115) vs. Dan Hooker (-105)
• Paddy Pimblett (-630) vs. Kazula Vargas (+450)
• Gunnar Nelson (-490) vs. Takashi Sato (+360)
• Molly McCann (-140) vs. Luana Carolina (+120)
• Jai Herbert (+410) vs. Ilia Topuria (-575)

Prelims (ESPN+ at 1 p.m. ET)

• Mike Grundy (-195) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (+165)
• Shamil Abdurakhimov (+245) vs. Sergei Pavlovich (-310)
• Nikita Krylov (-195) vs. Paul Craig (+165)
• Jack Shore (+100) vs. Timur Valiev (-120)
• Cory McKenna (-265) vs. Elise Reed (+215)
• Muhammad Mokaev (-380) vs. Cody Durden (+290)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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This is a great barometer fight for Aspinall. He has an opponent in Volkov who will give fans a good idea of just how good he is from a technical standpoint.

The Russian can use his length to make life difficult for fighters to get to a distance where they can hurt him. As a grappler, he’s only been beaten by a highly proficient wrestler in Blaydes. 

That aspect likely won’t come into play. Instead, we will get a good look at Aspinall’s striking. From that standpoint, he isn’t dissimilar to Gane. He sets a higher pace than most heavyweights and has looked technically sound against his competition to this point. 

The question is whether that technique carries over in a fight where he’ll have the pressure of fighting in the main event in his home country. 

If he does, the heavyweight division will be more interesting for it. It’s a division that could use another young contender with international appeal. Aspinall certainly looks the part. 

Prediction: Aspinall via third-round TKO

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It’s pretty clear this is a card that was built around finding out what Aspinall and Arnold Allen can do. They are the best young prospects that England has to offer in the UFC right now and are both being put in a position to showcase their skills. 

That doesn’t mean their matchups are easy. The odds paint a picture of a tough matchup for both. 

Allen drawing Hooker has a different feel to Aspinall getting Volkov, though. While Hooker is a well-known name and has fought a killer lineup of lightweights including Islam Makhachev, Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier he also lost to all of them. 

Now he is going back down to the 145-pound division after spending the last five years as a lightweight. That seems like a desperation move more than a tactical one. It’s a big weight cut to make and he was only 3-3 in the division. 

Arnold is not necessarily a heavy-handed striker but Hooker’s weight cut and chin could set him up for a somewhat surprising finish. Allen has yet to register a knockout in the UFC but two of Hooker’s four more recent losses have come by knockout. 

Prediction: Allen via third-round TKO

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It’s way too early to tell from a talent perspective, but Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett has star potential in the UFC. 

Entertaining and interesting fighters sell. A lightweight that looks like the fifth Beatle but has legitimate knockout power and isn’t afraid to make things interesting outside of the cage certainly qualifies as both. 

The UFC seems to know this. Putting him as the lead-in to the co-main event in London is not a mistake. The 27-year-old’s opponent wasn’t a mistake either. In Kazla Vargas the UFC matchmakers know they are getting a fighter who is going to be down for a slugfest from the opening bell. 

Vargas is just 2-3 in fights that go to a decision and he fights like a man who is looking to win by knockout in every round. He presents some danger to Pimblett, but he also leaves himself open to the danger. 

It’s a fight that should give Pimblett a chance to have two first-round knockouts in a row but potentially have to eat a haymaker or two on his way there. 

Prediction: Pimblett via first-round TKO

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