UFC on ESPN 38: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Odds, Schedule, Predictions

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Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

UFC on ESPN 38 comes to the UFC Apex Facility in Las Vegas with a pair of lightweight contenders hoping to break into the title picture in Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot.

The two rising prospects have a big opportunity in front of them as they headline a card for the first time. Tsarukyan brings with him a five-fight wins streak while Gamrot comes in with three straight wins after losing his UFC debut.

The co-main pits welterweight mainstay Neil Magny against another budding prospect in Shavkat Rakhmonov.

It’s a night filled with intriguing names who are hoping to rise up the ranks. Here’s a look at the complete schedule with the latest odds and a closer look at the biggest fights.

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Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Main Card (ESPN, ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET)

Arman Tsarukyan (-260) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (+220)

Neil Magny (+340) vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov (-425)

Josh Parisian (-115) vs. Alan Baudot (-105)

Thiago Moises (-255) vs. Christos Giagos (+215)

Nathan Maness (+650) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-950)

Chris Curtis (-120) vs. Rodolfo Vieira (+100)

Preliminary Card (ESPN2, ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET)

Carlos Ulberg (+110) vs. Tafon Nchukwi (-130)

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (+170) vs. T.J. Brown (-200)

Raulian Paiva (+130) vs. Sergey Morozov (-150)

JP Buys (-120) vs. Cody Durden (+100)

Brian Kelleher (+150) vs. Mario Bautista (-175)

Vanessa Demopoulos (+195) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (-230)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot have both made their impressions on the UFC through the same avenue. Both are relentless grapplers who commit to taking their opponents down at all costs.

Tsarukyan lands 3.47 takedowns per 15 minutes, per UFC Stats, while Gamrot averages 5.83. Those are both big numbers but the fact that the former only lands 37 percent of his attempts while Gamrot lands just 40 percent are examples of how they both are willing to spam takedowns until they get the fight where they want it.

Where the rubber is going to meet the road is Gamrot’s takedown defense. The Polish lightweight has never been taken down in the UFC.

If he can continue that streak he’s going to be in a good position to pull the upset.

That’s assuming he can get his opponent to the mat.

In reality, this will likely go the way many grappler vs. grappler matchups go. Both fighters might be a little more willing to turn things into a kickboxing affair rather than challenge their opponent’s strength.

Tsarukyan holds a slight advantage in that department.

Prediction: Tsarukyan via decision

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Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

While the main event is an exciting prospect vs. prospect clash, this is a good old-fashioned matchup of a gatekeeper against a true up-and-comer.

The 27-year-old Rakhmonov has looked dominant in three UFC outings. He moved his career record to 15-0 with three consecutive finishes including two submissions and two fights that were over in the first round.

He’s a prospect who has the look of a future title contender. While some fighters simply build a winning streak, he has established a reputation.

Rakhmonov has shown the ability to finish the fight both with his striking and his submission game. That’s something that is necessary to beat Magny.

Magny is a cagy veteran who has beaten hot prospects before. He has just enough boxing ability, clinch work and wrestling to be a tough out.

This is a great gauge for where Rakhmonov is in his development. Unfortunately for Magny, it appears Rakhmonov is the real deal.

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Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

The bantamweight bout between Nate Maness and Umar Nurmagomedov might not have the billing of the third-biggest fight on the card but it is one of the most interesting.

Nurmagomedov obviously has the name to be a star in the organization. He’s the cousin of former lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov but he has the goods in the cage too.

The younger Nurmagomedov is undefeated and brings a similar relentless style. He’ll look to take down his opponent and smash his way to setting up a submission. Both of his wins under the UFC banner have come by tap.

Maness is no slouch, though. He has just one loss in his career and is undefeated in three UFC fights. He last beat Tony Gravely by TKO and is a good prospect in his own right.

That signature Nurmagomedov pressure and pace is hard to overcome. It will likely be the difference as Maness will have a hard time creating the space for his superior striking to matter.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov via second-round submission

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