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Duane Burleson/Associated Press
The top three teams in the 2022 NFL draft order were cut further adrift in Week 12.
The Detroit Lions have been rooted into the No. 1 pick for months, and they will likely stay there unless they find a way to pull off two victories in the next six weeks.
The Houston Texans moved one step closer to locking in a top-three selection through their loss to the New York Jets. Houston now has a head-to-head loss to the three-win Jets and a victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, over whom they have a slightly weaker strength of schedule.
Jacksonville suffered its third consecutive defeat to drop to 2-9 alongside the Texans. The teams meet again in Week 15 in a game that will likely decide the franchise that picks second in April.
The Jets are still in a good position to land a high pick after Sunday. Their own pick is projected to be the No. 4 selection, and the one it owns from the Seattle Seahawks is No. 5.
Monday night’s matchup between the Seahawks and Washington Football Team will affect the draft order for both the Jets and New York Giants.
Entering Monday, the Jets and Giants are projected to pick on four straight occasions from No. 4 to No. 8. If Washington wins and removes itself from the group of four-win teams, the prospect of four top-10 picks belonging to the New York franchises will become even more real.
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Eric Smith/Associated Press
1. Detroit: 0-10-1
2. Houston: 2-9
3. Jacksonville: 2-9
4. New York Jets: 3-8
5. New York Jets (via Seattle 3-7)
6. New York Giants: 4-7
7. New York Giants (via Chicago 4-7)
8. Washington: 4-6
9. Philadelphia: 5-7
10. Philadelphia (via Miami 5-7)
11. Carolina: 5-7
12. Atlanta: 5-6
13. New Orleans: 5-6
14. Philadelphia (via Indianapolis 6-6)
15. Cleveland: 6-6
16. Pittsburgh: 5-5-1
17. Denver: 6-5
18. Las Vegas: 6-5
19. Minnesota: 5-6
20. Los Angeles Chargers: 6-5
21. Miami (via San Francisco 6-5)
22. Buffalo: 7-4
23. Detroit (via Los Angeles Rams 7-4)
24. Cincinnati: 7-4
25. Dallas: 7-4
26. Kansas City: 7-4
27. Tennessee: 8-4
28. Tampa Bay: 8-3
29. New England: 8-4
30. Green Bay: 9-3
31. Baltimore: 8-3
32. Arizona: 9-2
Updated order via Tankathon.com.
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Chris O’Meara/Associated Press
The Texans and Jaguars are not bad enough to be in competition for the No. 1 overall pick, but the No. 2 selection is still a nice consolation for going through a brutal season.
Houston entrenched itself as the favorite to be the No. 2 team in the draft order Sunday with its 24-14 loss to the New York Jets. The Texans have scored a maximum of 14 points in six of their nine losses, and their offense is not getting an instant fix.
David Culley’s team has a two-game home stretch against the Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks in which its offense likely will not keep up with Jonathan Taylor, D.K. Metcalf and others in the scoring column. If that is the case, the Week 15 clash between the Texans and Jaguars will be almost certainly for the No. 2 overall pick.
Jacksonville faces the Los Angeles Rams and Tennessee Titans on the road in the buildup to the Week 15 AFC South showdown. The Jaguars might be favored in that game because it is one of its two remaining games in Jacksonville. The other is a Week 18 meeting with the Colts.
If Jacksonville beats Houston, it could set up a contest for the No. 3 overall pick in Week 16, when the Jags visit the New York Jets.
Houston closes out the season with games against the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee, all of which are likely losses. At minimum, there will be one AFC South team picking in the top three. If the Jags lose to the Jets, half of the division could be at the top of the draft order.
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Ted S. Warren/Associated Press
The two New York franchises will have close eyes on Monday night’s game between the Seahawks and the Football Team.
As of Monday morning, the Seahawks are sitting at No. 5 in the projected draft order. Seattle’s pick transfers to the Jets from the Jamal Adams trade.
Washington is No. 8 in the projected order. If it loses, it has a chance to break up the consecutive picks for the Jets and Giants.
If Seattle wins, there would be four teams tied at 4-7. Seattle has the worst strength of schedule between it, Washington, the Giants and Chicago Bears. Chicago’s first-round pick goes to the Giants as part of the trade that allowed the Bears to pick Justin Fields in 2021.
Were Washington to win Monday, it takes the Football Team out of the mix for a top-seven pick for now. It would join five other franchises with five wins and would jump to the No. 12 or No. 13 pick at 5-6 because Philadelphia, Miami and Carolina have yet to go on bye weeks. Those three teams are 5-7.
A Seattle loss opens up a path for the Jets to have a pair of top-five picks. The Seahawks are set to play the 49ers in Week 13, and they still have to face Arizona, Chicago and the Los Angeles Rams.
If Pete Carroll’s team suffers a defeat Monday, it also puts a few head-to-head matchups for top picks into play. Seattle plays Houston in Week 14 and Detroit in Week 17.
Washington has to play four of its final six games on the road, and it starts a four-week stretch with contests against the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia in Week 13. Even if it wins Monday, it could land back in the top 10 if it struggles in December.
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