Warriors’ Most Pivotal Matchups After 2022 NBA All-Star Break

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Jed Jacobsohn/Associated Press

The Golden State Warriors entered the All-Star break looking up at the Phoenix Suns—like every other team in the NBA.

What’s different from the Dubs and everyone else, though, is that the Suns are the only team in front of them in the league standings. And while the gap is substantial (6.5 games), Phoenix won’t have an easy time maintaining it with floor general Chris Paul sidelined “for the next six to eight weeks because of an avulsion fracture in his right thumb,” per ESPN’s Tim Bontemps.

The Warriors might have legitimate hope of No. 1, though the more pressing matter might be keeping the third-seeded-and-surging Memphis Grizzlies at bay.

That makes this a logical time to examine the remaining schedule and spotlight the toughest matchups left on Golden State’s slate.

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Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

The Warriors are down to one game each against the Grizzlies and Suns, and those might be the only head-to-head matchups that directly affect the Dubs. Golden State has a 5.5-game edge on the fourth-seeded Utah Jazz, so maybe April 2’s showdown in Chase Center should crack this list, but it just doesn’t seem like the biggest worry right now.

So why spotlight this tilt instead? A couple of reasons.

First, playing at altitude is never fun, and this will be Golden State’s second road tilt with the Denver Nuggets in four days. There’s a home game against the Los Angeles Clippers sandwiched between them, so it’s not like the Warriors have time to rest.

Second, and most importantly, the Nuggets are uniquely positioned to attack the Warriors’ lack of size since they have reigning MVP Nikola Jokic manning the middle. He might have a hard time keeping up with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Co. on his own—though Denver has won the first two games in this series—but he could have a lot more help by then, as both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are on the mend, as team president Tim Connelly told Altitude Sports Radio 92.5 (h/t Jasmyn Wimbish of CBS Sports).

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Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

The Warriors got a first-row seat for the Grizzlies’ rise—they just might not have realized it at the time.

Long before Memphis became the talk of this season by way of its ridiculous 32-9 run since Nov. 28, it was the talk of last year’s play-in tournament. That’s when the then-ninth-seeded Grizzlies dispatched the eighth-seeded Dubs in a 117-112 overtime thriller that saw Ja Morant (35 points, six assists and four steals) go toe-to-toe with Curry (39 points, five assists).

The Grizzlies have since grabbed two of their three games against the Warriors.

Memphis is ferocious, relentless and not afraid of anyone. This might only be Morant’s third season, but the Grizzlies have already embraced his leadership and formed an identity that mirrors his own. The Warriors will have to work to keep them contained, and this is their one chance to do that directly.

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Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Fast-foward to the end of March, and the Warriors will know whether they have a realistic shot of catching the Suns.

If they do, the eyes of the basketball world will be on this contest.

It’s the only remaining matchup between these Pacific Division powers, and the potential prize is no less than the No. 1 overall seed for the duration of the playoffs. It’s not hyperbolic to suggest this could be the highest-stakes game of the entire season.

The Suns drew first blood in this series back in late November, but the Warriors won their two December contests. They haven’t shared the hardwood since. If Paul can’t make it back by for this game, that could put a ton of pressure on Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges to pick up the slack. They are capable, but overcoming the combined efforts of Curry, Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and potentially Draymond Green won’t be easy.