Will Saints Star Michael Thomas Return to WR1 Status in 2022 Fantasy Football?

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Back in the long-ago days of 2019, New Orleans Saints wide
receiver Michael Thomas had one of the best seasons any wide receiver in NFL
history ever has. That year, the 29-year-old led the league in both catches
(149) and receiving yards (1,725). His 149 receptions were the most ever in a
single season. Thomas won Offensive Player of the Year honors and was the No. 1
wideout in fantasy by over
100 PPR points. The only non-quarterback who had more points that year was
Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey.

Since that massive season, however, Thomas’ career has
followed the same disappointing trajectory as McCaffrey’s. In 2020, Thomas
caught just 40 passes for 438 yards over seven games in an injury-shortened
season. After surgery in the summer of 2021 to repair the same ankle that hampered
him the year before, Thomas missed all of last season.

Now, like McCaffrey, Thomas is trying to get his career back
on track. But while fantasy managers appear willing to give McCaffrey the benefit
of the doubt, Thomas’ return is being met with a healthy dose of skepticism. Per
the Average Draft
Position Data at Fantasy Pros, Thomas is being drafted on average as a
lower-end fantasy WR3 at the back end of Round 6.

Is that all Thomas is now? A marginal fantasy starter and
mid-round pick whose best days are behind him? Or can Thomas turn back the
clock in 2022, recapture past glories and serve as this year’s Cooper Kupp—a massive
value that leads fantasy managers to championships?

For the first time in a long time, there was tangible good
news on the Thomas front—after opening training camp on the PUP list, Thomas
was on the practice field Wednesday.

Thomas also spoke
to reporters for the first time since the 2020 season, stating that it felt
great to finally be back on the field.

“Man, I’m kind of lost for words,” said Thomas.
“I didn’t want to come up here and get emotional or anything. But it was a
blessing to be back out there with the guys.”

Saints head coach Dennis Allen was also quite pleased to see
Thomas out there, although his optimism was tempered.

“I thought he looked good,” Allen said. “I
think we’ve still gotta be smart with him as we go throughout training camp.
But I thought it was a good start, having him out there on the first day. I was
excited about seeing No. 13 walk out on the field. Listen, Mike Thomas wants to
be out here. He wants to help this team win games. And that’s his whole mindset
and his whole purpose. And he’s extremely driven to do that. And I think this
was a good step in the right direction.”

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Thomas also attempted to put to rest any remaining drama
over the curious timing of his ankle surgery last year.

“We can put (the 2021 surgery timetable) to rest
right now. It’s pretty much like when you go to a doctor, you get an opinion.
You go to two doctors, one person has an opinion, another person has an
opinion. You have the right to pick an opinion. So if one of the opinions is
you can rehab your ankle and it should be good by camp, and I’ve never had
surgery, then I’m gonna stick with that one. If that one doesn’t work, then I’m
gonna go with the second one. And that’s pretty much how it worked. I don’t
write the opinion, I just have to pick one.”

Thomas said that he’s “very confident” that he
will be as good as ever in 2022. And that statement may well be the most
important of all for fantasy managers.

It’s not like Thomas’ record-setting 2019 season was the
only time he’s posted huge numbers. In 2018, Thomas was first in the league in
receptions (125), sixth in receiving yards (1,405), 10th in touchdowns (nine)
and sixth
in PPR fantasy points. That year, Thomas’ catch
percentage was a ridiculous 85 percent.

The year before that, Thomas tallied 105 catches for 1,245
yards and five scores—numbers that once again ranked him sixth
in PPR points among receivers. As a rookie in 2016, Thomas posted a 92/1,137/9
line that ranked seventh in
PPR points at the position.

Sean Gardner/Getty Images

That’s four straight 1,000-yard seasons. Four straight
90-catch seasons. And four straight years as a top-10 fantasy option. Four
straight seasons from 2017-2020, Thomas had an ADP inside the top 20 overall at
Fantasy
Football Calculator. In 2020, he was the fifth overall pick on average.

For several years, Thomas was equal parts prolific and
consistent. The gold standard among fantasy wideouts. And if he really is 100
percent (or close to it), then his absolute fantasy ceiling is back among the
elite options at the position.

However, there are factors working against Thomas hitting
that ceiling that go beyond his ankle. For starters, all that damage that
Thomas did was with Drew Brees throwing him the ball. Jameis Winston will be
leading the offense in 2022, and he’s working his way back from an ACL tear of
his own.

The good news in that regard is that Winston is also back on
the practice field, and he told
reporters that his recovery is progressing well.

“I would say I got more explosive (since
minicamp),” he said. “I was good, I was ready to go right then. But
it’s a progression. The healing process really never stops. I feel stronger
right now, but with practice increasing, I know I’ve got to harp on a couple of
things and continue to build.”

Abbie Parr/Getty Images

Winston has shown that he can post big numbers—back in 2019
with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Winston led the NFL with 5,109 passing yards.
But while Winston did a much better job taking care of the football and
avoiding turnovers in his seven starts for the Saints in 2021, his 167.1
passing yards per game was easily a career-low.

Part of that is attributable to a lack in receiving talent
in New Orleans, and the Saints will all but certainly improve offensively
through the air after ranking dead last in that regard last season. But this
probably won’t be an especially high-volume passing offense unless the season
starts to get away from them and they are forced to play catch-up with
regularity.

There’s also something in New Orleans this year that wasn’t
for a big chunk of Thomas’ statistical rampage—a viable secondary receiver. From
2016 to 2109, there was only one other wideout on the Saints’ roster who topped
70 targets in a season—Brandin Cooks, with 117 in 2016.
The Saints didn’t spend a first-round pick on Ohio State’s Chris Olave so he
could watch games unfold, and given the youngster’s talent level he’s going to
be a significant part of the Saints ‘passing-game plans.

Add those factors to the fact that Thomas hasn’t scored a
regular-season touchdown since Dec. 22, 2019, and while a top-12 fantasy
season might be possible, it isn’t probable. Expecting one certainly isn’t
reasonable after his long layoff.