John Hefti/Associated Press
Either the Los Angeles Dodgers or San Francisco Giants will have their World Series quest end on Thursday night.
The National League West rivals split the first four games of their NLDS heavyweight bout. Thursday’s winner faces Atlanta in the NLCS.
For most of the Major League Baseball season, the Giants and Dodgers were viewed as two of the top favorites to win the Fall Classic.
The good news for Atlanta is that it only has to face one of them to reach the World Series, but that will still be a difficult task, especially if it has to go on the road to face San Francisco to begin the NLCS.
Whichever team comes out of the NL will face either the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros. Once the NLDS concludes on Thursday, the ALCS will take center stage on Friday night in Texas.
Updated MLB Postseason Bracket
NLDS
Atlanta def. Milwaukee, 3-1
Los Angeles tied with San Francisco, 2-2.
ALDS
Boston def. Tampa Bay, 3-1
Houston def. Chicago White Sox, 3-1
NLCS
Atlanta vs. Los Angeles/San Francisco winner
ALCS
Boston vs. Houston
Predictions
San Francisco Rides Logan Webb To Another Playoff Victory
Logan Webb has been fantastic inside Oracle Park this season.
San Francisco’s Game 5 starter owns a 1.96 ERA inside his home ballpark. He extended that form into the postseason by hurling 7.2 scoreless innings in Game 1.
Webb outdueled Walker Buehler with his 10-strikeout performance. He has the potential to do the same opposite Julio Urias in Game 5.
Webb allowed more than three earned runs on a single occasion in a home start in 2021. That came in his final appearance of the regular season against the San Diego Padres.
He struck out five and conceded one earned run in his regular-season home start against the Dodgers on July 27.
Webb is the perfect pitcher for clinching a series on home soil. He could shift the series momentum back in San Francisco’s favor with a few scoreless frames to begin Game 5.
Urias is a fine pitcher in his own right, but he has been a bit shaky in some road outings in 2021. He conceded three or more earned runs in five regular-season road starts and lost a head-to-head battle with Webb on July 27. The Los Angeles left-hander went 5.2 innings in that game.
Urias has been a postseason star for the Dodgers in recent years, but his margin for error on Thursday is slim to none.
The Giants earned a base hit in each of the first two innings off Urias in Game 2, and they played a run in the second inning.
If San Francisco gets on Urias early again, it will set the stage for Webb to marvel us with another pitching gem and send the Giants into the NLCS.
Houston Earns Early ALCS Lead Through Starting Pitching
Houston will be at a disadvantage to start the ALCS since Lance McCullers closed out the ALDS versus the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday.
Even with McCullers unavailable to start right away, the Astros should have the edge on the Red Sox thanks to their rotational depth.
Framber Valdez owns a 2.86 postseason ERA with 32 strikeouts over 28.1 innings. He should be in line to start Game 1 on full rest after going 4.1 innings in Game 2 versus the White Sox.
Valdez shut down Boston’s bats in back-to-back appearances in June. He produced 18 strikeouts over 14.1 innings. He conceded one earned run each in those starts.
Valdez’s arm should give Houston the edge required to win Game 1 over any hurler the Red Sox tab to take the hill at Minute Maid Park.
Eduardo Rodriguez should be out of contention for a start since he, like McCullers, closed out the ALDS on Monday.
Chris Sale only lasted an inning in his ALDS start, and Nathan Eovaldi had a 4.21 road ERA compared to a 3.47 home ERA in the regular season.
Eovaldi has a sterling 1.93 postseason ERA, but four of his last five playoff appearances have come inside Fenway Park.
Houston was responsible for one of Eovaldi’s worst home stat lines of the regular season, as it tagged him for 11 hits and five earned runs on June 9.
The Boston right-hander conceded at least five earned runs on the road three times, all of which came after July 1. Two of those outings were against teams in the postseason mix.
The combination of a strong outing from Valdez and an impressive recent history against Eovaldi should allow Houston to take an early edge in the ALCS no matter what Boston’s rotation looks like.
Statistics obtained from Baseball Reference.
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