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As the biggest WWE event and pro wrestling event of the year, WrestleMania arrives with the expectation that it will feature some of the best matches of the last year, if not ever given the stage.
But with the two-night affair that is WrestleMania 38 arriving this weekend, it’s also important to remember that highly-regarded matches are not even close to being a guarantee. Just a year ago, one certain match earned a minus-one rating from an expert.
Star ratings for matches don’t just hinge on the quality of the in-ring fight. Storylines, pacing, results and their implications and more go into each rating.
Before the event kicks off, here’s a look at projected star ratings for each match on the card.
WrestleMania 38 Match Predictions
- Brock Lesnar def. Roman Reigns: 4 stars
- Bianca Belair def. Becky Lynch: 3 stars
- Ronda Rousey def. Charlotte Flair: 3 stars
- Edge def. AJ Styles: 5 stars
- Rey & Dominik Mysterio def. The Miz & Logan Paul: 2 stars
- The New Day (Kofi Kingston and Xavier Woods) vs. Sheamus and Ridge Holland: 2 stars
- Drew McIntyre def. Happy Corbin: 2 stars
- Seth Rollins vs. Mystery Opponent: 3 stars
- RK-Bro def. The Street Profits & Alpha Academy: 4 stars
- The Usos def. Shinsuke Nakamura & Rick Boogs: 2 stars
- Pat McAfee def. Austin Theory: 3 stars
- Johnny Knoxville def. Sami Zayn: 2 stars
- Sasha Banks & Naomi def. Carmella & Queen Zelina, Rhea Ripley & Liv Morgan, Natalya & Shayna Baszler: 2 stars
Bianca Belair def. Becky Lynch: 3 stars
This match is one of the more interesting case studies for the star-rating system as a whole.
On paper, Bianca Belair and Becky Lynch are more than capable of putting on a classic. The long-term storyline built up by WWE’s (odd?) decision to make Lynch a heel, return and steal Belair’s title in just a few moves last summer built a superb foundation that obviously pointed at WrestleMania.
But other things go into a star rating, too. Placement on the card dictates much. With Charlotte Flair-Ronda Rousey surely ending Night 1 if the “Stone Cold” Steve Austin segment doesn’t, this match could get lost in the fray.
Another big factor is the actual finish. If fans spent all this time hoping for Belair to get revenge and regain her title, only to lose on the biggest stage, it would tank the rating.
Luckily for fans, there is seemingly a zero-percent chance this happens. Belair should win an excellent encounter, with only card placement and the redundant nature of the matchup really hurting the rating.
Edge def. AJ Styles: 5 stars
Even for WrestleMania, a 5-star rating is elusive.
But most Manias don’t feature a fight between Edge and AJ Styles.
Styles continues to be one of the best on the planet, an international star who has dominated the scene anywhere he goes. His quick ascension in the main-event scene upon arrival in WWE said it all about how Vince McMahon and the company felt about him.
Edge needs less of an introduction for longtime WWE fans. A borderline miracle story after his return from a previously career-ending neck injury, Edge has bucked the trend of returning legends who only serve in a part-timer role and crushed any and all feuds, including that classic series with Randy Orton.
Put the two together and…greatness. Both are still amazing in the ring and should have great chemistry because they can get as technical as they want or just slug it out. As a bonus for the star rating, while rare, this is one of those matches that doesn’t even need much of a storyline.
Who actually wins is a toss-up that won’t hurt the rating much, either. For fans’ sake, it’s probably best to hope whatever finish they come up with is a way to start a series, not signal this was a one-off.
Brock Lesnar def. Roman Reigns: 4 stars
Wrestling fans have a ton of different emotions invested in this feud.
Some fans don’t want to see more Brock Lesnar title reigns, especially if he’s a part-timer. Others love this new rendition of his character and wouldn’t mind.
As for Reigns, a portion of the fanbase understands they’re witnessing one of the greatest title runs of all time after a much-requested heel turn for him. There’s also the understanding that a Reigns win likely leads to an encounter with the Rock at WrestleMania 39 in California. Other fans just want to see something new, which would mean a Reigns loss.
No matter how fans feel going into this one, and no matter how many times we’ve seen this encounter before, even as a Mania main event, the two figure to put on a classic. There’s a reason WWE keeps dipping into this well. These two feel larger than life and their violent, impactful exchanges and storytelling just craft classics.
So much so, it won’t have an issue rising to the expectations of the Mania main event and the actual result won’t influence the star rating much either way. The Paul Heyman factor could only make things better given his history, both as a performer and with both Superstars.
The only exception is if the finish to the match is a downer, be it a weird interference or downright botch. But given the talent involved and the reality this has been planned for a long, long time, it’s not something to worry about before Mania arrives.
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