Xbox’s Contingency Plan: What if Microsoft Loses its FTC Case?

I try to be an optimist in life, and that includes my career and the coverage I lead at IGN. I’d rather celebrate great games than tear down flawed ones. I’d rather look ahead to the games I’m most excited about than lament the ones that aren’t being made yet. And in the case of Microsoft’s in-progress case against the United States Federal Trade Commission (FTC), I’d rather look ahead to what it would look like for Team Xbox to win the case rather than lose it. 

However, given that a loss is well within the realm of possibility (you might laugh at that if you’ve been following the case closely, given the forest’s worth of wrong trees the FTC’s lawyers have been trying to bark up with Xbox executives on the stand, but stranger things have happened), I think it’s important to take a look at what Microsoft’s contingency plan might look like if the US government is able to successfully block Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision-Blizzard-King (ABK). Obviously, the following is all speculation, but let’s take a look at what Microsoft might do if this case doesn’t go its way.

Option 1: Attempt to buy Square Enix

If I’ve learned nothing else from this trial, I’ve learned that the King (read: mobile) arm of ABK is a bigger piece of this for Microsoft than I, a core gamer who doesn’t particularly care about mobile gaming, gave it credit for. Don’t believe me? Microsoft’s testimony in this case has revealed that the company first tried to buy mobile gaming giant Zynga before Take-Two swooped in and got a deal done. Microsoft also considered flashing some cash to snap up Square Enix, largely due to the Japanese gaming powerhouse’s strong mobile gaming lineup. 

Option 2: Attempt to buy Capcom

While Square Enix’s fellow Japanese publishing mainstay might not have quite as strong of a mobile portfolio, it’s got a mobile presence with games like Monster Hunter and Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney already on the market. And Capcom’s core-gaming franchises probably outweigh the comparative weakness in the mobile department with stalwart IPs like Resident Evil, Street Fighter, Devil May Cry, the aforementioned Monster Hunter, the dormant Dead Rising and Mega Man, and more. Xbox does, after all, need more Japanese development talent in its growing portfolio.

Option 3: Attempt to buy Ubisoft

The French publisher has fought off acquisition attempts in the past and right now, I’m sorry to say, the company seems to be struggling. Ubisoft has both a robust mobile portfolio as well as a treasure trove of core-gaming franchises that Microsoft could either keep for itself or continue publishing on PlayStation, reaping profits for itself in the process. Furthermore, Ubisoft is also the largest source of talent in the incredibly fruitful Montreal market, with the company’s Ubisoft Montreal studio in particular having been responsible for the likes of Assassin’s Creed, Splinter Cell, Rainbow Six, Prince of Persia, and many others over the years. If Ubisoft is a bit woozy, financially speaking, Microsoft could certainly offer them a soft pillow, a blanket, and a bowl of chicken noodle soup to help ‘em feel better, both in the short- and long-term.

Option 4: Invest heavily in new, internal, mobile-focused studios

In all honesty, Microsoft should probably do this if it hasn’t already done so, regardless of what else it chooses to do and what verdict may come from the FTC trial. Sure, it takes more time, and the ride isn’t always smooth (see: The Initiative), but homegrown can be both creatively and financially rewarding. To state it in an oversimplified way, organically growing more of its own studios costs less overall, but takes longer. 

However the FTC trial turns out, you can bet on this: Microsoft is not going to simply put that $69 billion back in its pocket should the deal fail to go through. They might not spend that entire wad of cash, but they will be active. What else might Microsoft do? Drop your thoughts on what Team Xbox might reasonably do (rather than what you hope they do) in the Comments below, and stay tuned to IGN for up-to-the-minute coverage on this historic trial for the video game industry, including the expected verdict next week.

Ryan McCaffrey is IGN’s executive editor of previews and host of both IGN’s weekly Xbox show, Podcast Unlocked, as well as our monthly(-ish) interview show, IGN Unfiltered. He’s a North Jersey guy, so it’s “Taylor ham,” not “pork roll.” Debate it with him on Twitter at @DMC_Ryan.