March Madness 2022: Safe Picks, Predictions for Riskiest Teams in NCAA Bracket
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John Locher/Associated Press
The Gonzaga Bulldogs and Kentucky Wildcats have been near the top of the NCAA men’s basketball rankings all season long, and they could be on the path for a showdown in the Final Four.
The programs appear to be two of the safest bets to reach New Orleans.
Gonzaga does not have an easy path to the Final Four, but it has one of the deepest rosters in the country, which could help it to deal with the various challenges presented in the West Region.
Kentucky was trending toward being a national championship pick in recent weeks. The Wildcats landed the No. 2 seed in the East Region and could be viewed as the favorite in that portion of the bracket because of its inside-outside combination.
Not all of the top seeds can be trusted to make deep runs. The Providence Friars are a popular pick to be an early upset. Providence played in a ton of close games in its conference, and its stock took a hit Friday when it was blown out by the Creighton Bluejays in the Big East tournament.
The Friars headline a small list of top seeds that could be susceptible to a first-round upset because of their style of play.
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Matt Stamey/Associated Press
Gonzaga
The No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament should be trusted to win a few games over the next few weeks.
Gonzaga’s explosive offense, led by Chet Holmgren and Drew Timme, should have enough firepower to get past its first two opponents.
Mark Few’s team could face a tricky second-round matchup against the Boise State Broncos or Memphis Tigers, but Gonzaga should overpower Boise State’s typical low-scoring form and has been more consistent than a surging Memphis side.
Holmgren and Timme could be vital if chalk holds in the top half of the West Region. The size and length of both players will help them deal with either the Connecticut Huskies or Arkansas Razorbacks.
The big concern for Gonzaga is a prospective Elite Eight showdown with the Duke Blue Devils. Gonzaga lost to Duke in nonconference play, and it will be a tough opponent again if the rematch comes to fruition.
Gonzaga may be better equipped to face Duke this time around, and it could benefit from the experience gained by Timme and others on the Final Four run last season.
At minimum, the Zags should reach the Elite Eight, which is something you can’t say about all of the top seeds.
Kentucky
Kentucky has a terrific combination of high-scoring guards and a dominant big man that should allow to go far in March.
The No. 2 seed in the East region has a National Player of the Year candidate in Oscar Tshiebwe, who could run the table in the early rounds.
Tshiebwe will have the edge in almost all of his matchups. It would be fun to see him go up against Holmgren and Timme in a national semifinal.
TyTy Washington Jr. leads a collection of guards who can match the scoring output of any opponent, which is why the Wildcats could match up so well with the Purdue Boilermakers in the Sweet 16.
Kentucky has a clear path to the second weekend, and it could take advantage of Purdue’s average defense in the Sweet 16.
The Wildcats would have the edge down low on the Baylor Bears and the UCLA Bruins, though they would not have the advantage in experience since both programs reached the Final Four last season.
However, Kentucky has enough talent to overpower either Baylor or UCLA to get back to the Final Four.
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Frank Franklin II/Associated Press
Providence
Providence will be one of the most popular teams to pick against in the first round.
The Friars played in a ton of close games on their way to the Big East regular-season title and come into the Big Dance off a 27-point defeat to Creighton in the Big East tournament quarterfinals.
Ed Cooley’s team may be favored to make an early exit because it won six games by a maximum of four points since January 26 and earned three overtime victories in February alone. Providence tested its luck in some of those games and the upset loss to Creighton did not inspire much confidence its March prospects.
The first-round draw against the South Dakota State Jackrabbits, who have a top-five scoring offense, does not inspire much confidence in a deep run from the Friars.
Providence got off to a handful of slow starts in those games, and it may not recover from one if the No. 13 seed out of the Summit League hits a ton of shots in the opening 20 minutes.
Prediction: First-round exit.
LSU
LSU comes into the Big Dance in the most awkward situation of the 68 participants.
The Tigers parted ways with head coach Will Wade on Saturday, and that could be a distraction for everyone around the program.
LSU received a bit of a break in the first round with a matchup against the Iowa State Cyclones, who have had problems scoring of late. But even if LSU advances out of the first round, it likely will not last long in the tournament. A potential second-round meeting with the Wisconsin Badgers could knock out LSU if Iowa State does not.
Wisconsin won a share of the Big Ten regular-season title, and it has one of the most dynamic playmakers in the country in Johnny Davis.
LSU getting past Wisconsin in its current form would be viewed as a shock, and you could even make the case that it would be a surprise if it wins one game because of its situation.
Prediction: Second-round loss to Wisconsin.
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